The School of Odds
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Kashima Antlers v Urawa Red Diamonds

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 05:00 UTC

Final: Kashima Antlers 1–0 Urawa Red Diamonds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashima Antlers (Local)

Prediction 47.02%2.13fair odd
EV -5.01%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.81%47.00%47.07%47.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.951.952.0253.76%51.19%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit)

Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -0.952%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.40%26.02%26.03%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.563.7130.30%28.36%28.05%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.97%3.71fair odd
EV +0.342%
Edge +0.092%
Kelly +0.126%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.01%26.98%26.90%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.333.7231.25%29.72%30.08%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kashima Antlers (Local): 47.02%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit): 26.00%; Draw: 26.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.342%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.90%EV -5.01%E -2.48%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.08%EV -3.53%E -0.952%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.01%EV +0.342%E +0.092%K +0.126%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-18 04:45
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -5.95%E -2.98%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.24%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 04:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.50%EV -9.71%E -5.06%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -5.59%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-18 04:25
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -5.95%E -2.98%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.94%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.89%EV -6.42%E -3.23%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.91%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.94%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 04:55
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.29%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -6.94%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 04:25
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.29%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -6.94%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 04:25
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.95%E -2.98%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 04:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.55%EV -10.18%E -5.33%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.73%EV -8.21%E -2.33%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 04:32
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.84%EV -11.59%E -6.17%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 04:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.20%EV -12.53%E -6.74%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -9.64%E -2.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-18 04:25
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.95%E -2.98%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 04:50
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 04:55
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 04:55
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 04:50
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-18 04:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.68%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.68%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 04:50
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.68%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 04:50
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.30%E -4.26%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.68%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-04-18 04:55