The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kashima Antlers v FC Machida Zelvia

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 07:00 UTC

Final: Kashima Antlers 1–1 FC Machida Zelvia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashima Antlers (Local)

Prediction 40.69%2.46fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.629%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.20%40.63%40.67%41.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.282.4246.51%44.09%43.86%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 28.24%3.54fair odd
EV +0.261%
Edge +0.074%
Kelly +0.102%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.26%28.28%28.23%29.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.233.253.5533.33%30.99%30.77%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.06%3.22fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.74%31.10%31.10%31.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.952.953.1034.84%33.90%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kashima Antlers (Local): 40.69%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 28.24%; Draw: 31.06%. For FC Machida Zelvia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.261%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.01%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV +0.261%E +0.074%K +0.102%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.73%EV -5.26%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 06:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 05:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.27%EV -8.03%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -5.39%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -6.19%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 06:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 06:00
BetAnything🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -1.52%E -0.629%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 06:55
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -7.22%E -3.17%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.02%EV -7.43%E -2.49%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 06:00
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -7.22%E -3.17%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.02%EV -7.43%E -2.49%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 06:00
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -10.47%E -4.76%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 06:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 06:50
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 06:51
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 06:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 06:50
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -10.47%E -4.76%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 06:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.95%EV -9.66%E -4.35%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.23%EV -9.06%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 06:35
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -4.37%E -1.86%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 06:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 06:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.65%EV -12.51%E -5.82%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.36%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-03 06:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -10.47%E -4.76%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -11.04%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 06:01
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.45%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 06:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.45%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 06:54
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.45%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.85%E -3.78%K -5.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 06:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.45%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.85%E -3.78%K -5.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 06:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -12.51%E -5.82%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -15.27%E -5.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-03 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.12%3.0%2026-05-03 06:55