Language:English
JEF United Chiba v V-Varen Nagasaki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
JEF United Chiba (Local)
Prediction 36.63%2.73fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.529%
Kelly +0.827%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 2.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.32%36.57%36.62%38.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.512.502.7744.44%39.78%40.00%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)
Prediction 34.50%2.90fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.24%34.58%34.49%36.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.652.8440.00%37.73%37.74%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -0.767%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.85%28.89%29.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.32%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 36.63%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 34.50%; Draw: 28.87%. For JEF United Chiba (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.32%EV +1.46%E +0.529%K +0.827%G +0.012% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.43%EV -9.96%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -2.57%E -0.964%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.48%EV -4.78%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 04:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -2.57%E -0.964%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.48%EV -4.78%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 04:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.52%EV -2.93%E -1.11%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.07%EV -2.02%E -0.711%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-11 04:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.76%E -1.83%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.13%E -1.86%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 04:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -4.76%E -1.83%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -12.03%E -4.72%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -5.13%E -1.86%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -1.84%E -0.541%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -6.85%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -1.84%E -0.541%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -6.85%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.73%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -6.85%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.73%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.13%E -1.86%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 04:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.13%E -1.86%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 04:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -6.59%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.85%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-11 04:18 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.50%EV -7.69%E -3.05%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.82%EV -6.16%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 04:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.50%EV -7.69%E -3.05%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.82%EV -6.16%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 04:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.07%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -3.28%E -0.980%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.73%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 04:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.61%E -3.67%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.61%E -3.67%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.61%E -3.67%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.61%E -3.67%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.43%E -3.37%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.65%EV -9.16%E -3.69%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.95%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.65%EV -9.16%E -3.69%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.95%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -10.26%E -4.19%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.95%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -10.26%E -4.19%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.95%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-11 04:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.26%E -4.19%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-11 04:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.26%E -4.19%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.26%E -4.19%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -13.75%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-11 04:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.15%EV -12.09%E -5.04%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -9.27%E -3.52%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 28.95%EV -11.08%E -3.60%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-11 04:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.99%EV -12.09%E -5.04%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -12.03%E -4.72%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.19%EV -9.06%E -2.88%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-11 04:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.42%EV -17.58%E -7.81%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.24%EV -10.30%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.34%EV -11.95%E -3.92%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-10-11 04:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.67% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 04:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.86% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07% | 1.2% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.77% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.45% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.17% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38% | 1.6% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.80% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.99% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.22% | 2.2% | 2026-10-11 04:50 |