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JEF United Chiba v V-Varen Nagasaki

2026-10-11 05:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 33.98%2.94fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.67%34.01%33.99%35.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.702.7740.00%37.36%37.11%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 37.99%2.63fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.07%38.04%38.01%40.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.392.402.5546.51%41.81%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.757%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.67%27.96%28.00%28.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.253.5032.26%30.54%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: JEF United Chiba (Local): 33.98%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 37.99%; Draw: 28.03%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -1.89%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.39%EV -5.88%E -2.12%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.13%E -1.23%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.26%EV -5.54%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 06:50
1xBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.56%EV -6.22%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.55%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.89%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 06:35
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.03%E -2.01%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.757%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 07:00
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.82%E -3.68%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-04 06:05
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -9.58%E -4.03%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 05:50
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -9.58%E -4.03%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 05:51
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -9.58%E -4.03%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 05:55
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.26%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.93%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 07:15
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.26%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.93%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 07:16
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.26%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.93%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 07:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.26%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.93%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 07:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.60%EV -8.60%E -3.20%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV -5.79%E -2.33%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.87%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 06:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 32.84%EV -9.28%E -3.47%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.32%EV -15.28%E -6.85%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -11.70%E -3.72%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-04 05:49
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -9.95%E -3.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.93%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 07:04
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -9.95%E -3.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.93%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 07:03
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -9.95%E -3.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -8.82%E -3.68%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-04 07:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.67%EV -9.95%E -3.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.27%EV -18.32%E -8.52%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.06%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-04 05:51
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -9.58%E -4.03%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-04 07:05
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -8.82%E -3.68%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.10%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-04 06:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.69%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.93%EV -14.52%E -6.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-04 06:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.69%EV -13.35%E -5.24%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.04%EV -16.42%E -7.46%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.27%EV -11.70%E -3.72%K -5.44%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-04 06:15
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -15.05%E -6.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -12.62%E -5.49%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -13.10%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-04 07:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 33.94%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%3.0%2026-10-04 06:45
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 33.03%2.24I 44.64%NM 38.34%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.63%16.4%2026-10-04 05:55