The School of Odds
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 06:00 UTC

Final: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC 1–1 Vissel Kobe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 40.71%2.46fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.54%41.09%40.78%45.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.262.252.3849.50%44.30%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 31.42%3.18fair odd
EV +8.41%
Edge +2.44%
Kelly +3.43%
Growth +0.289%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.64%31.05%31.36%32.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.903.4536.36%34.11%34.48%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.87%3.59fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.538%
Kelly -0.752%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.04%27.86%27.86%28.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.253.5232.26%30.60%30.77%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 40.71%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 31.42%; Draw: 27.87%. For Vissel Kobe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -17.77%E -8.80%K -17.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV +8.41%E +2.44%K +3.43%G +0.289%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 20:55
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.67%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.84%EV -4.47%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.50%EV -1.90%E -0.538%K -0.752%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-06 05:55
BetAnything🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.94%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.69%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.37%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 05:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 05:29
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 05:29
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-06 05:30
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.72%EV -7.19%E -3.15%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.15%EV -6.36%E -2.13%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 05:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.38%EV -5.97%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.52%EV -6.99%E -2.36%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.10%EV -7.47%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 05:54
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.34%E -1.85%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -5.24%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-06 05:20
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 05:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.25%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.08%EV -8.24%E -2.82%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.67%EV -8.58%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 05:34
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 05:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 05:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 05:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 05:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -12.48%E -5.81%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-06 05:34
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-06 05:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -10.44%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-06 05:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.60%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 05:30
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.60%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 05:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.60%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 05:29
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.60%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 05:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.93%EV -12.48%E -5.81%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.00%EV -13.58%E -4.94%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-06 05:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.18%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-05-06 05:50