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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Kyoto Purple Sanga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)
Prediction 44.84%2.23fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.22%44.82%44.92%46.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.022.022.1852.91%49.39%49.50%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)
Prediction 26.83%3.73fair odd
EV -0.731%
Edge -0.198%
Kelly -0.271%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%26.88%26.82%27.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.353.7031.25%29.51%29.85%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.09%28.30%28.26%29.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.203.3732.26%31.18%31.25%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 44.84%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 26.83%; Draw: 28.33%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.731%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.36%EV -2.25%E -1.03%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.94%EV -3.68%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.70%EV -4.53%E -1.34%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-27 09:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -5.83%E -2.78%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-27 09:53 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.83%E -2.78%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.78%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-27 09:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.83%E -2.78%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-27 09:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.83%E -2.78%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-27 09:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.85%EV -6.73%E -3.24%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -5.02%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-27 09:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -8.08%E -3.94%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-27 09:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.08%E -3.94%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-27 09:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -8.08%E -3.94%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-02-27 09:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.08%E -3.94%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.78%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-02-27 09:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.08%E -3.94%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.78%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-02-27 09:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -9.42%E -4.66%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.44%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-27 09:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -9.42%E -4.66%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.44%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-27 09:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -10.32%E -5.16%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -0.731%E -0.198%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 09:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -10.32%E -5.16%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.12%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-27 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -10.32%E -5.16%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-27 09:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -10.32%E -5.16%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-27 09:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -10.32%E -5.16%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-27 09:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -10.32%E -5.16%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-27 09:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.39%EV -13.01%E -6.71%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -14.15%E -4.42%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-27 09:29 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.89%EV -14.80%E -7.79%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.42%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.68%EV -10.76%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-02-27 09:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.03%EV -15.25%E -8.07%K -17.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.62%EV -10.76%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-02-27 09:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 45.64%EV -15.25%E -8.07%K -17.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.54%EV -12.80%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.82%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-02-27 09:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.