The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 54.29%1.84fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -6.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.55%54.33%54.31%56.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.701.7563.29%59.29%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 21.04%4.75fair odd
EV +3.10%
Edge +0.632%
Kelly +0.794%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.71%20.97%21.06%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.294.334.9025.00%23.28%23.09%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.67%4.05fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.326%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.91%24.70%24.62%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.693.604.0028.57%27.13%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 54.29%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 21.04%; Draw: 24.67%. For Gamba Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.15%EV -6.63%E -3.85%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.71%EV +3.10%E +0.632%K +0.794%G +0.025%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.30%E -0.326%K -0.435%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-14 05:50
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -9.34%E -5.59%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.22%E -0.699%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -3.77%E -0.967%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 00:05
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -5.54%E -3.19%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -5.32%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -5.01%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 05:54
BetAnything🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -6.63%E -3.85%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.32%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -5.01%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 05:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.29%EV -6.63%E -3.85%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -5.32%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.97%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 05:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -6.08%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 05:55
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.71%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 05:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.71%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 05:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.71%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 05:55
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -8.48%E -1.95%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 05:54
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -8.48%E -1.95%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 05:55
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -8.90%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 05:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.92%EV -13.14%E -8.21%K -21.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.67%EV -10.58%E -2.49%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 05:51
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 05:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -8.80%E -5.24%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 05:54
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.71%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-14 05:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.02%EV -14.23%E -9.00%K -24.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.70%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.28%EV -11.67%E -3.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 05:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.98%EV -12.60%E -7.83%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.20%EV -13.74%E -3.35%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.46%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-14 05:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.34%E -5.59%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.84%E -3.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 05:55
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.34%E -5.59%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.84%E -3.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 05:54
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.34%E -5.59%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.84%E -3.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 05:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.34%E -5.59%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.84%E -3.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 05:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.78%EV -10.97%E -6.69%K -17.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -15.84%E -3.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.17%EV -9.94%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-14 05:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.60%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.14%7.2%2026-03-14 05:55