The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Cerezo Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 58.65%1.71fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -3.46%
Kelly -9.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.35%58.46%58.73%59.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6166.67%63.62%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cerezo Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 18.66%5.36fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.462%
Kelly -0.571%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.11%18.78%18.63%20.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.834.955.2323.26%20.69%20.20%19.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.69%4.41fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%22.76%22.64%23.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.004.004.2026.32%25.01%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 58.65%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 18.66%; Draw: 22.69%. For Cerezo Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.23, with an expected value of -2.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.84%EV -5.58%E -3.46%K -9.14%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 18.11%EV -2.41%E -0.462%K -0.571%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.05%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 11:39
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -5.58%E -3.46%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -16.03%E -3.56%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -4.69%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-24 01:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -6.16%E -3.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -4.69%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:19
BetAnything🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -6.16%E -3.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -8.57%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 01:30
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -6.16%E -3.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:35
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -6.16%E -3.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -6.16%E -3.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -6.16%E -3.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -7.34%E -4.64%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -4.84%E -0.949%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 11:39
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.50%EV -7.34%E -4.64%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.67%EV -7.64%E -1.54%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.82%EV -8.09%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 16:20
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.50%EV -7.34%E -4.64%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.67%EV -7.64%E -1.54%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.82%EV -8.09%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 16:19
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.92%E -5.05%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -4.69%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 11:05
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -7.92%E -5.05%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-20 11:30
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.92%E -5.05%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.23%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 06:10
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -7.92%E -5.05%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.37%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -13.77%E -3.62%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 11:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.74%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.77%EV -9.50%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.48%EV -8.09%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 16:16
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-20 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-20 11:29
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-20 11:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -11.50%E -2.95%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-20 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.90%EV -9.68%E -6.29%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.81%EV -16.03%E -3.56%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.23%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.66%EV -10.86%E -7.14%K -20.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%EV -11.37%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.57%EV -10.36%E -2.62%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 16:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.52%EV -12.03%E -8.02%K -24.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -19.77%E -4.60%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.41%EV -12.63%E -3.28%K -4.43%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-23 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 57.24%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%9.9%2026-04-24 00:40