The School of Odds
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Gamba Osaka v Fagiano Okayama

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 06:00 UTC

Final: Gamba Osaka 2–2 Fagiano Okayama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 54.21%1.84fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -5.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.66%54.18%54.29%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.7761.73%58.97%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 19.88%5.03fair odd
EV +3.38%
Edge +0.649%
Kelly +0.804%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.54%19.85%19.83%21.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.604.575.2023.81%21.73%21.86%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.91%3.86fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.99%25.97%25.88%26.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.523.523.7029.41%28.42%28.37%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 54.21%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 19.88%; Draw: 25.91%. For Fagiano Okayama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -5.67%E -3.26%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.54%EV +3.38%E +0.649%K +0.804%G +0.027%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -4.14%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-19 05:55
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.23%EV -7.30%E -4.27%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -0.600%E -0.120%K -0.150%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-19 05:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -7.30%E -4.27%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.24%EV -3.58%E -0.739%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.21%EV -7.77%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 05:54
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.58%E -0.953%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 05:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.58%E -0.953%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.58%E -0.953%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 05:45
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.58%E -0.953%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 05:45
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.14%EV -5.67%E -3.26%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -6.56%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 05:55
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -7.56%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 05:45
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -7.56%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 05:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.69%EV -10.01%E -6.03%K -15.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -8.55%E -1.86%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -8.03%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 05:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.87%EV -11.09%E -6.76%K -17.33%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.78%EV -9.55%E -2.10%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -8.03%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 05:45
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -4.04%E -2.28%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -10.54%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 05:25
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -10.54%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 05:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -8.92%E -5.31%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -12.53%E -2.85%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-19 05:45
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -9.46%E -5.67%K -14.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.53%E -2.85%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-19 05:45
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -9.46%E -5.67%K -14.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.53%E -2.85%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-19 05:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -9.46%E -5.67%K -14.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.53%E -2.85%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-19 05:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -9.46%E -5.67%K -14.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.53%E -2.85%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.92%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-19 05:45
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -13.92%E -3.21%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -6.73%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 05:45
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -13.92%E -3.21%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 05:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.10%EV -12.18%E -7.52%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -16.50%E -3.93%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -9.32%E -2.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-19 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 57.07%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.97%0.1%2026-04-19 05:50