The School of Odds
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FC Tokyo v Kawasaki Frontale

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 05:00 UTC

Final: FC Tokyo 2–0 Kawasaki Frontale

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Tokyo (Local)

Prediction 49.81%2.01fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%49.69%49.87%50.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.851.9356.82%54.12%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kawasaki Frontale (Visit)

Prediction 24.31%4.11fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -0.817%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.46%24.38%24.28%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.753.753.9828.17%26.68%26.67%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.787%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%25.93%25.85%26.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.523.503.7529.41%28.43%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Tokyo (Local): 49.81%; Kawasaki Frontale (Visit): 24.31%; Draw: 25.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -2.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.01%EV -3.86%E -2.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.25%EV -3.25%E -0.817%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -2.95%E -0.787%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 04:55
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -3.86%E -2.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -11.27%E -3.09%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -4.25%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 04:55
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -4.86%E -2.54%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -6.41%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -5.54%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 04:55
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.86%E -2.54%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -12.49%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 04:55
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -6.85%E -3.66%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.63%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 04:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.12%EV -7.35%E -3.95%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -6.65%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -5.80%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 04:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -7.85%E -4.24%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -5.20%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 04:29
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -7.85%E -4.24%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.20%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -8.13%E -2.29%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 04:25
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -7.85%E -4.24%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.20%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -8.13%E -2.29%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 04:25
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.85%E -4.24%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.63%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 03:40
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -7.85%E -4.24%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.84%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -7.85%E -4.24%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.84%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -7.85%E -4.24%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.84%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 04:55
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -8.84%E -4.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.84%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-02 04:45
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.84%E -4.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.49%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 04:20
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.84%E -4.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.49%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 04:21
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.84%E -4.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.49%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 04:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.84%E -4.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.49%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 04:21
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.84%E -4.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.49%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.01%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 04:21
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.23%EV -9.34%E -5.13%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -8.84%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 04:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.40%EV -10.34%E -5.74%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.69%EV -6.90%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.42%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 04:36
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.74%EV -11.34%E -6.37%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -6.41%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -9.42%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 04:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.85%EV -12.33%E -7.01%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -13.70%E -3.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -10.72%E -3.11%K -4.37%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.44%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.31%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25%2.9%2026-05-02 04:55