The School of Odds
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FC Machida Zelvia v Nagoya Grampus

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 06:00 UTC

Final: FC Machida Zelvia 2–1 Nagoya Grampus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Machida Zelvia (Local)

Prediction 44.32%2.26fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%44.31%44.32%45.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.072.092.1750.51%48.21%47.85%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nagoya Grampus (Visit)

Prediction 27.17%3.68fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.02%27.14%27.22%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.373.403.5331.25%29.65%29.41%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.51%3.51fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.478%
Kelly -0.674%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%28.55%28.46%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.193.203.4532.26%31.31%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Machida Zelvia (Local): 44.32%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 27.17%; Draw: 28.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.57%EV -3.82%E -1.76%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.40%EV -4.09%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -1.65%E -0.478%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-06 05:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -4.71%E -2.19%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -6.26%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.93%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-06 05:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.91%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.35%E -2.26%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-06 05:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.11%EV -5.36%E -1.61%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-06 05:49
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.93%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-06 05:39
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-06 05:09
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 05:09
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-06 05:30
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-06 05:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-06 05:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-06 05:30
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -7.81%E -3.75%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -6.26%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-06 05:19
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -7.81%E -3.75%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -6.26%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-06 05:19
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-06-06 05:29
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.70%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 05:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.70%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 05:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.70%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 05:09
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.70%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 05:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.01%EV -10.47%E -5.18%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.58%EV -7.08%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-06 05:38
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -4.91%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-06 05:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -5.93%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-06 05:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.50%EV -12.24%E -6.18%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -13.06%E -4.08%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -10.20%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.5%2026-06-06 05:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.03%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.47%2.0%2026-06-06 05:50