The School of Odds
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FC Machida Zelvia v Kashima Antlers

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 10:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Machida Zelvia (Local)

Prediction 40.23%2.49fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.59%40.27%40.21%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.252.4147.62%44.26%44.44%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashima Antlers (Visit)

Prediction 29.85%3.35fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.920%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.22%29.82%29.90%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.073.103.2534.48%32.60%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.92%3.34fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.941%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.86%29.90%29.90%31.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.023.003.2434.48%33.07%33.33%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Machida Zelvia (Local): 40.23%; Kashima Antlers (Visit): 29.85%; Draw: 29.92%. For Kashima Antlers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -2.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.16%EV -3.05%E -1.27%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -3.59%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -3.05%E -0.941%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-18 10:05
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.60%EV -3.46%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -2.99%E -0.920%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-18 10:04
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.97%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-18 10:14
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-18 08:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -5.87%E -2.51%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 10:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.97%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 08:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-18 10:05
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -8.28%E -3.63%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-18 08:55
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -8.28%E -3.63%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-18 08:55
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-18 09:05
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-18 09:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-18 09:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-18 09:05
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 09:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-18 09:30
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-18 09:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-18 09:30
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-18 09:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-18 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.89%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -11.73%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-18 10:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -13.44%E -4.63%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-18 08:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 41.27%EV -15.12%E -7.17%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.22%EV -11.05%E -3.71%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -11.73%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-18 10:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.05%EV -15.52%E -7.39%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -11.94%E -4.05%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.73%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-18 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.