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Fagiano Okayama v Nagoya Grampus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fagiano Okayama (Local)
Prediction 29.82%3.35fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.393%
Kelly -0.564%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.25%29.86%29.85%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.063.103.3134.48%32.71%32.26%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nagoya Grampus (Visit)
Prediction 39.44%2.54fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%39.42%39.41%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.312.302.4246.08%43.23%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.74%3.25fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.92%30.73%30.74%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.962.903.1535.09%33.81%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 29.82%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 39.44%; Draw: 30.74%. For Fagiano Okayama (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.31, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.25%EV -1.30%E -0.393%K -0.564%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.01%EV -4.56%E -1.88%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV -3.16%E -1.00%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 04:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -5.35%E -2.23%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.24%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 04:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -6.24%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-01 04:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -6.97%E -2.23%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.66%EV -7.32%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -5.93%E -1.94%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 04:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.35%E -2.23%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -6.24%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 04:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.77%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -7.32%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -8.39%E -2.81%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 04:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -7.32%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -8.39%E -2.81%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 04:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-01 03:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.35%E -2.23%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.77%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-01 04:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -6.24%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-01 04:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.77%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-01 03:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.29%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-01 03:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.41%EV -11.14%E -3.74%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.84%EV -13.23%E -6.02%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.75%EV -12.38%E -4.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-01 04:34 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -12.04%E -4.08%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -13.23%E -6.02%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.66%EV -12.38%E -4.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-03-01 04:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.46%EV -12.04%E -4.08%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.05%EV -14.42%E -6.64%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.49%EV -12.38%E -4.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-01 04:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -13.53%E -4.66%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.73%EV -13.23%E -6.02%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-03-01 04:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.