The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Fagiano Okayama v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 03:55 UTC

Final: Fagiano Okayama 1–0 Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 19.86%5.03fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.585%
Kelly -0.736%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.57%20.03%19.84%21.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.574.604.8923.81%21.90%21.74%20.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)

Prediction 55.40%1.81fair odd
EV -5.27%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -7.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.72%55.28%55.39%56.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.671.7162.50%59.97%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.74%4.04fair odd
EV -0.563%
Edge -0.140%
Kelly -0.187%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.92%24.68%24.77%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.703.684.0227.78%27.03%27.17%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 19.86%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 55.40%; Draw: 24.74%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.02, with an expected value of -0.563%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.89I 20.45%NM 19.70%EV -2.86%E -0.585%K -0.736%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.34%EV -5.27%E -3.08%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.96%EV -0.563%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 03:41
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -4.65%E -0.969%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.01%EV -6.37%E -3.77%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.53%E -0.906%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 03:40
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -5.64%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.82%E -3.42%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 03:40
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -5.64%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.36%EV -6.37%E -3.77%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 03:50
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -5.64%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 03:40
BetAnything🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -6.64%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.28%EV -5.82%E -3.42%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 03:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -6.64%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -6.93%E -4.12%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.67%EV -6.50%E -1.72%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 03:45
NordicBet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -7.63%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.27%EV -6.93%E -4.12%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 03:41
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -7.63%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.27%EV -6.93%E -4.12%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 03:40
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 03:45
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 03:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 03:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 03:50
Betclic (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 19.96%EV -9.62%E -2.11%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.37%EV -9.14%E -5.58%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.67%EV -8.97%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 03:40
Unibet (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 19.85%EV -9.62%E -2.11%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.75%EV -10.25%E -6.33%K -16.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 03:41
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -10.61%E -2.36%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.82%E -3.42%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 03:09
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -12.60%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.42%EV -9.14%E -5.58%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 03:40
Coral🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -12.60%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -8.59%E -5.21%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 03:50
Neds🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -12.60%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -8.59%E -5.21%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -12.60%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -8.59%E -5.21%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 03:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -12.60%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -8.59%E -5.21%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 03:50
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -16.57%E -3.94%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 02:39
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -16.57%E -3.94%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.78%EV -11.36%E -7.10%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-02 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%2.1%2026-05-02 03:50