The School of Odds
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Fagiano Okayama v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 41.53%2.41fair odd
EV -6.15%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.39%41.44%41.56%42.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.252.2647.62%45.30%44.44%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%29.23%29.22%30.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.113.103.3035.09%32.16%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.45%29.33%29.22%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.103.2833.33%31.94%32.26%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 41.53%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 29.21%; Draw: 29.26%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -3.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -6.15%E -2.72%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.03%EV -4.03%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 10:45
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 05:24
BetAnything🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 12:09
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.83%E -2.49%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 10:44
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.83%E -2.49%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 10:50
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 06:34
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 11:19
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 11:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 11:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 11:24
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 10:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.66%EV -6.98%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.53%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 08:14
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 10:59
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 09:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.90%EV -9.88%E -4.55%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.05%EV -8.57%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.05%EV -8.42%E -2.69%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 05:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.68%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.83%E -2.49%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-22 10:50
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 06:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 06:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 06:35
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 06:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -12.79%E -6.09%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 05:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.04%EV -12.79%E -6.09%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.24%EV -16.75%E -5.88%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-22 10:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 41.15%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.94%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.92%7.1%2026-04-24 00:40