The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v V-Varen Nagasaki

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 07:00 UTC

Final: Cerezo Osaka 3–2 V-Varen Nagasaki

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 54.58%1.83fair odd
EV +0.980%
Edge +0.530%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.98%54.29%54.51%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.8561.73%58.99%58.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 21.04%4.75fair odd
EV -0.691%
Edge -0.146%
Kelly -0.186%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.40%21.31%21.00%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.334.404.7226.32%23.09%22.73%21.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.38%4.10fair odd
EV -0.546%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.177%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%24.40%24.49%25.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.753.754.0827.78%26.65%26.67%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 54.58%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 21.04%; Draw: 24.38%. For Cerezo Osaka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.980%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV +0.980%E +0.530%K +1.15%G +0.011%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -20.05%E -5.28%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -12.25%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 16:39
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.02%E -2.89%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -4.27%E -0.938%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 06:34
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.99%EV -6.12%E -3.56%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.40%EV -0.691%E -0.146%K -0.186%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.60%EV -0.546%E -0.134%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 06:14
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%EV -6.66%E -3.90%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -3.22%E -0.699%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -3.71%E -0.940%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 06:23
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -6.66%E -3.90%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 06:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.94%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -6.37%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -5.42%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 06:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.32%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 05:49
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.49%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -6.37%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 05:49
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.49%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -6.37%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 05:49
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 06:14
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 06:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 06:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.42%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 06:25
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.21%E -4.24%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 06:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.46%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 05:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.49%EV -8.84%E -5.30%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -8.48%E -1.95%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.81%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 06:33
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -8.84%E -5.30%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-09 06:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.84%E -5.30%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.25%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-09 05:49
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.84%E -5.30%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.25%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-09 05:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.84%E -5.30%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.25%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-09 05:49
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.84%E -5.30%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.63%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.25%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-09 05:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.94%EV -10.48%E -6.39%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.71%EV -8.48%E -1.95%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -9.81%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 06:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.09%EV -11.57%E -7.14%K -18.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -15.84%E -3.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.01%EV -11.03%E -3.02%K -4.16%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-09 05:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-05-09 06:24