The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 43.51%2.30fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -4.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.90%43.50%43.53%44.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.102.132.1750.25%47.66%46.95%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 30.05%3.33fair odd
EV -0.841%
Edge -0.255%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.30%30.05%30.07%30.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.043.003.3035.09%32.94%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.45%3.78fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.797%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.97%26.45%26.39%27.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.433.453.7030.77%29.15%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 43.51%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 30.05%; Draw: 26.45%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -0.841%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.56%EV -5.59%E -2.58%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -0.841%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -2.15%E -0.581%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 05:40
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 05:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 04:09
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 00:24
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 05:09
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 19:04
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -8.35%E -2.74%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.76%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 04:09
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -8.35%E -2.74%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.76%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 04:09
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 05:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 05:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.46%E -3.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 05:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.82%EV -7.33%E -3.44%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -5.32%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 05:45
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-06 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.64%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 04:10
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-07 05:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.73%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 00:25
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.73%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.73%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 00:24
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.73%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 00:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.54%EV -12.12%E -6.00%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.81%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%EV -12.73%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-07 05:31
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.53%EV -14.36%E -5.04%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -11.41%E -3.41%K -4.85%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-07 04:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.38%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -12.86%E -4.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -14.05%E -4.32%K -6.25%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-07 05:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.11%EV -13.42%E -6.74%K -13.56%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.45%EV -10.46%E -3.51%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.44%EV -12.20%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-07 05:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.