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Cerezo Osaka v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cerezo Osaka (Local)
Prediction 25.77%3.88fair odd
EV +1.80%
Edge +0.457%
Kelly +0.612%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.50%25.77%25.80%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.503.9530.30%28.34%28.57%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)
Prediction 48.10%2.08fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.30%48.13%48.14%49.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.912.0055.56%52.90%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.535%
Kelly -0.730%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%26.10%26.06%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.503.503.7529.85%28.55%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 25.77%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 48.10%; Draw: 26.13%. For Cerezo Osaka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV +1.80%E +0.457%K +0.612%G +0.011% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.39%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.11%EV -6.71%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-22 01:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -4.64%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.03%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -4.62%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-21 07:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -5.15%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.04%EV -6.70%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -5.93%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-22 03:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-21 23:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-22 01:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-22 01:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-22 00:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-22 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.51%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.64%EV -8.62%E -4.54%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -4.62%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-22 03:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -8.51%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -7.66%E -3.99%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-21 23:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -2.01%E -0.535%K -0.730%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-21 20:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-21 21:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -10.06%E -5.38%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-02-21 06:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.11%EV -8.62%E -4.54%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-21 23:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 25.60%EV -11.86%E -3.47%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.64%EV -13.43%E -7.46%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.75%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-02-21 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.37%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-21 20:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.37%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-21 20:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.37%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-21 20:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.37%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-21 20:44 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -12.37%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.97%EV -11.99%E -6.55%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.21%EV -12.46%E -3.72%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-22 01:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.74%EV -12.37%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.36%EV -12.95%E -7.15%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 25.90%EV -11.68%E -3.45%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-02-22 00:03 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.95%E -4.53%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.83%EV -11.50%E -6.25%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -9.85%E -2.85%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-21 23:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.