The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v FC Tokyo

2026-11-21 06:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 19.15%5.22fair odd
EV +0.540%
Edge +0.103%
Kelly +0.127%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.17%19.10%19.14%20.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.734.805.2524.39%21.12%20.83%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 58.33%1.71fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -7.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%58.35%58.29%59.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.571.581.6369.93%63.55%63.29%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.684%
Kelly -0.890%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.74%22.55%22.57%23.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.054.054.3127.40%24.68%24.69%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 19.15%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 58.33%; Draw: 22.52%. For Cerezo Osaka (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.22. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.25, producing a positive expected value of +0.540%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV +0.540%E +0.103%K +0.127%G +0.001%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.64%EV -6.67%E -4.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-14 09:24
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.25%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.961%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-14 09:09
FanDuel🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.25%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.961%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-14 09:14
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.25%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -7.25%E -4.56%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-14 09:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -4.25%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-14 09:10
Pinnacle🎯4.96I 20.16%NM 19.15%EV -5.01%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -5.50%E -3.40%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.20%EV -3.62%E -0.846%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-14 09:25
1xBet🎯4.92I 20.33%NM 19.38%EV -5.78%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.50%EV -4.92%E -3.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.12%EV -2.95%E -0.684%K -0.890%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-14 09:14
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -6.16%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.95%EV -5.50%E -3.40%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-14 17:17
BetOnline.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -6.16%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.10%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-14 10:49
LowVig.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -6.16%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.10%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-14 10:50
Bet Right🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -6.16%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -9.00%E -5.77%K -16.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-14 09:25
Marathon Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -8.08%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.49%EV -7.25%E -4.56%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-14 09:09
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -8.08%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.54%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-14 11:39
Betsson🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -8.08%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.16%EV -7.84%E -4.96%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -8.80%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 09:15
NordicBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -8.08%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.16%EV -7.84%E -4.96%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -8.80%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 09:15
Tipico (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -8.08%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.79%EV -9.59%E -6.18%K -17.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-15 00:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.88%EV -7.84%E -4.96%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-14 09:15
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%EV -10.75%E -7.03%K -20.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-14 09:15
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -5.50%E -3.40%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-14 14:44
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-14 14:40
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-14 14:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-14 14:40
Casumo🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -9.59%E -6.18%K -17.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-14 09:15
Betclic (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.05%EV -11.92%E -7.89%K -23.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-14 09:14
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -17.08%E -3.94%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.95%EV -10.75%E -7.03%K -20.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-14 09:25
Winamax (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.39%EV -17.65%E -4.11%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.69%EV -11.34%E -7.46%K -21.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-14 09:15
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 19.66%EV -19.57%E -4.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 57.73%EV -16.59%E -11.60%K -38.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.62%EV -17.81%E -4.88%K -6.72%G +0.000%21.1%2026-11-14 09:14
Winamax (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 20.90%EV -21.48%E -5.24%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.13%EV -12.50%E -8.34%K -25.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%16.7%2026-11-14 09:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.10%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%5.1%2026-11-15 00:00
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 20.02%1.51I 66.23%NM 57.02%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.96%16.1%2026-11-14 09:15

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