Language:English
Cerezo Osaka v Fagiano Okayama
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cerezo Osaka (Local)
Prediction 47.85%2.09fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.16%47.69%47.93%48.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.922.0055.56%52.13%52.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fagiano Okayama (Visit)
Prediction 25.14%3.98fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -0.974%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%25.22%25.08%25.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.603.603.8329.41%27.75%27.78%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.01%3.70fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.384%
Kelly -0.530%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.12%27.09%26.99%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.403.6531.25%29.76%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 47.85%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 25.14%; Draw: 27.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.65, with an expected value of -1.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.31%EV -4.30%E -2.15%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.23%EV -3.73%E -0.974%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -1.40%E -0.384%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -4.30%E -2.15%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-18 09:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -5.25%E -2.65%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-18 09:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-18 09:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-18 09:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.56%E -4.24%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-18 09:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.56%E -4.24%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-18 09:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.56%E -4.24%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-18 09:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.56%E -4.24%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-18 09:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.10%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -6.50%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -6.00%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-18 09:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -7.65%E -3.96%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -4.10%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-18 08:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.12%E -4.23%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-18 09:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.12%E -4.23%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.60%E -4.50%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-18 09:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.60%E -4.50%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.60%E -4.50%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-18 09:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.60%E -4.50%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-18 09:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.60%E -4.50%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-18 09:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -9.08%E -4.78%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -10.77%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.84%EV -11.95%E -6.50%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.89%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.27%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.94%EV -12.43%E -6.79%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 47.84%EV -13.39%E -7.40%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.10%EV -13.28%E -3.85%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.06%EV -13.56%E -4.24%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.28%EV -13.87%E -7.70%K -17.33%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 24.97%EV -12.53%E -3.60%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.74%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-18 09:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.04% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.93% | 4.0% | 2026-03-18 09:24 |