The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Avispa Fukuoka v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 10:00 UTC

Final: Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Vissel Kobe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avispa Fukuoka (Local)

Prediction 27.03%3.70fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -0.593%
Kelly -0.819%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%26.93%27.10%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.403.403.6231.25%29.40%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 42.02%2.38fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.75%42.18%41.98%44.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.202.3450.00%45.90%45.45%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.95%3.23fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.79%30.90%30.92%32.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.972.983.1034.84%33.68%33.56%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 27.03%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 42.02%; Draw: 30.95%. For Vissel Kobe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -1.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.56%EV -2.15%E -0.593%K -0.819%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.81%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.63%EV -5.92%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 09:55
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.69%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.06%E -1.31%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -4.85%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.71%E -3.02%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.50%EV -8.39%E -2.84%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 09:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.75%EV -1.67%E -0.714%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.00%EV -7.77%E -2.61%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.75%EV -1.67%E -0.714%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.00%EV -7.77%E -2.61%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 09:55
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.75%EV -1.67%E -0.714%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.00%EV -7.77%E -2.61%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 09:55
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -11.76%E -5.60%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 09:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -11.76%E -5.60%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -8.70%E -2.95%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 09:55
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -15.96%E -7.98%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 07:50
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -15.96%E -7.98%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 07:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -15.96%E -7.98%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 07:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -15.96%E -7.98%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 07:50
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.61%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 09:45
Bovada🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -5.61%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 09:50
1xBet🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.67%EV -7.28%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.91%EV -2.51%E -1.08%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.42%EV -6.54%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 09:55
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 09:54
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 09:55
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 09:50
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -10.25%E -3.53%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 09:50
Betsson🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.92%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -7.77%E -2.61%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 09:55
NordicBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.92%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -7.77%E -2.61%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -8.70%E -2.95%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 09:55
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.76%E -5.60%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 09:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 26.96%EV -8.90%E -2.64%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.25%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -8.70%E -2.95%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 09:55
SportsBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.76%EV -11.76%E -5.60%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -8.70%E -2.95%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 09:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.80%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 09:54
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -12.15%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -10.87%E -3.77%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 09:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -12.15%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -10.87%E -3.77%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 09:55
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -12.15%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.87%E -3.77%K -5.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -12.15%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.87%E -3.77%K -5.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 09:50
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.44%EV -12.15%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.08%EV -11.18%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.44%EV -12.15%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.08%EV -11.18%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 09:50
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -13.50%E -4.22%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -10.87%E -3.77%K -5.78%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 09:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -13.50%E -4.22%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -11.76%E -5.60%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -8.70%E -2.95%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-08-08 09:55
Matchbook◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-08-08 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-08-08 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-08-08 09:51
Smarkets◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%1.9%2026-08-08 09:50
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.0%2026-08-08 09:45

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