Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Virtus Entella v Cesena FC

Inicio: 2026-08-29 17:01 UTC

Final: Virtus Entella 1–2 Cesena FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Virtus Entella (Local)

Predicción 50.03%2.00momio equitativo
EV -2.45%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -2.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.09%50.00%50.03%51.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.681.831.831.9559.52%54.60%54.64%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cesena FC (Visitante)

Predicción 22.15%4.52momio equitativo
EV +1.65%
Ventaja +0.359%
Kelly +0.459%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.01%22.16%22.19%23.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.144.184.5925.64%24.14%23.95%21.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.83%3.59momio equitativo
EV -2.60%
Ventaja -0.742%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.97%27.84%27.78%29.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.293.303.5032.79%30.38%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Virtus Entella (Local): 50.03%; Cesena FC (Visitante): 22.15%; Empate: 27.83%. Para Cesena FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.52. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.59, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.65%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.29%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 21.01%EV +1.65%E +0.359%K +0.459%G +0.008%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.71%EV -3.15%E -0.906%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-29 16:45
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -2.56%E -0.582%K -0.753%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 16:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 16:45
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 16:35
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.17%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:44
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:35
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.42%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 16:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.70%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -5.88%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -2.60%E -0.742%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 16:45
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.91%EV -2.95%E -1.52%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.50%EV -7.33%E -2.20%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.44%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 16:34
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 16:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 16:55
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:40
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:40
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%EV -2.45%E -1.26%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.60%EV -8.10%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%EV -2.45%E -1.26%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.60%EV -8.10%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:45
BetUS🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.36%EV -6.95%E -3.74%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -9.20%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 16:45
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.98%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -9.20%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 16:34
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.98%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -9.20%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 16:35
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.28%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.20%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.28%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.20%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 16:40
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.81%EV -11.46%E -6.47%K -14.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.94%EV -9.20%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.88%EV -12.46%E -7.12%K -16.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -9.20%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.75%EV -10.45%E -5.84%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.99%EV -10.31%E -2.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -12.34%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 16:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 16:45
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.77%EV -7.95%E -4.32%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 16:40
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 16:45
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -12.34%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -13.73%E -4.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.75%EV -12.96%E -7.45%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.75%EV -12.96%E -7.45%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 16:35
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.39%EV -12.46%E -7.12%K -16.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-29 16:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.32%EV -12.96%E -7.45%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -12.34%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-29 16:35
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.36%EV -6.95%E -3.74%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.58%EV -12.46%E -7.12%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.97%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.45%EV -15.12%E -4.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-29 16:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 16:46
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 16:35
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.73%E -4.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-29 16:35
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.73%E -4.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-29 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.73%E -4.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-29 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 50.91%EV -15.96%E -9.50%K -23.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.93%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.15%EV -12.34%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-29 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-08-29 16:55
Matchbook◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%1.0%2026-08-29 16:50
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.63%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.47%1.8%2026-08-29 16:55