Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Venezia v Padova

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Venezia (Local)

Prediction 75.97%1.32fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -13.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.34%75.85%76.00%77.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.231.221.2790.09%81.62%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Padova (Visit)

Prediction 8.55%11.70fair odd
EV +11.15%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +0.929%
Growth +0.104%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.18%8.59%8.53%10.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.3410.2513.0011.76%9.67%9.76%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.48%6.46fair odd
EV +4.83%
Edge +0.713%
Kelly +0.837%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 6.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.08%15.55%15.46%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.705.556.7720.41%17.56%18.02%14.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Venezia (Local): 75.97%; Padova (Visit): 8.55%; Draw: 15.48%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.70. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.77%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV +11.15%E +0.857%K +0.929%G +0.104%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -4.00%E -0.645%K -0.769%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 18:54
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.38%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%12.28I 8.14%NM 7.81%EV +4.99%E +0.406%K +0.442%G +0.022%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.81%EV +0.338%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 18:45
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 18:30
Fanatics🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +0.647%E +0.100%K +0.118%G +0.001%5.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -10.36%E -8.78%K -57.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-17 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.17%EV -10.36%E -8.78%K -57.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-17 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.10%EV -11.12%E -9.50%K -65.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.32%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -22.58%E -4.52%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-17 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV +0.647%E +0.100%K +0.118%G +0.001%4.5%2026-03-17 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV +0.647%E +0.100%K +0.118%G +0.001%4.5%2026-03-17 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -0.901%E -0.141%K -0.167%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 18:30
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -3.22%E -0.516%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-17 18:25
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:23
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.56%E -5.33%K -28.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.28%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -5.55%E -0.909%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.28%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -5.55%E -0.909%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 18:25
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.73%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-17 18:30
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.88%EV -6.56%E -5.33%K -28.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-17 18:25
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-17 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.09%EV -10.36%E -8.78%K -57.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.75%EV -11.74%E -2.06%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-17 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.61%EV -11.12%E -9.50%K -65.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.94%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -22.58%E -4.52%K -5.64%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-17 18:46
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.98%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 18:25
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 18:35
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -4.00%E -0.645%K -0.769%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 18:55
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-17 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.53%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -22.58%E -4.52%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-17 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 74.76%EV -15.68%E -14.12%K -142.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.30%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 16.94%EV -24.13%E -4.92%K -6.19%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-17 18:50
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.28%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%9.89I 10.11%NM 9.64%EV -15.44%E -1.56%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.08%EV +4.83%E +0.713%K +0.837%G +0.040%4.9%2026-03-17 18:55
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-17 18:25
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-17 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.75%EV -9.60%E -8.07%K -50.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.88%EV -13.29%E -2.37%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-17 18:32
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.54%EV -9.60%E -8.07%K -50.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-17 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 75.55%EV -13.40%E -11.75%K -95.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.07%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.38%EV -13.29%E -2.37%K -2.89%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-17 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.34%EV -4.28%E -3.40%K -16.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -19.48%E -3.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.30%EV -8.08%E -6.68%K -38.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -3.22%E -0.516%K -0.614%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-17 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.50%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV -19.48%E -3.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-17 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.50%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV -19.48%E -3.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-17 18:25
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.42%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -21.03%E -4.12%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.14%EV -9.60%E -8.07%K -50.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.38%EV -27.33%E -3.22%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.48%EV -11.74%E -2.06%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-17 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Matchbook1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:50
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 78.39%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.76%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.85%2.1%2026-03-17 18:55