L’École des cotes

Venezia v Padova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Venezia (Local)

Prévision 75.97%1.32cote équitable
EV -3.52%
Avantage -2.77%
Kelly -13.05%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.27

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
72.34%75.85%76.00%77.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.111.231.221.2790.09%81.62%81.97%78.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Padova (Visiteur)

Prévision 8.55%11.70cote équitable
EV +11.15%
Avantage +0.857%
Kelly +0.929%
Croissance +0.104%

avec la cote maximale 13.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.18%8.59%8.53%10.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.5010.3410.2513.0011.76%9.67%9.76%7.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 15.48%6.46cote équitable
EV +4.83%
Avantage +0.713%
Kelly +0.837%
Croissance +0.040%

avec la cote maximale 6.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.08%15.55%15.46%17.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.905.705.556.7720.41%17.56%18.02%14.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Marathon Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 77.77%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV +11.15%E +0.857%K +0.929%G +0.104%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -4.00%E -0.645%K -0.769%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 18:54
Pinnacle1.24I 80.65%NM 77.38%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%12.28I 8.14%NM 7.81%EV +4.99%E +0.406%K +0.442%G +0.022%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.81%EV +0.338%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 18:45
Coolbet1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 18:30
Fanatics1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +0.647%E +0.100%K +0.118%G +0.001%5.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Bet Victor1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -10.36%E -8.78%K -57.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-17 18:49
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 76.17%EV -10.36%E -8.78%K -57.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-17 18:50
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 75.10%EV -11.12%E -9.50%K -65.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.32%EV +2.60%E +0.216%K +0.236%G +0.006%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -22.58%E -4.52%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-17 18:50
LowVig.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV +0.647%E +0.100%K +0.118%G +0.001%4.5%2026-03-17 18:35
BetOnline.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV +0.647%E +0.100%K +0.118%G +0.001%4.5%2026-03-17 18:35
Codere (IT)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -0.901%E -0.141%K -0.167%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 18:30
BetMGM1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -3.22%E -0.516%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-17 18:25
DraftKings1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:23
Unibet (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.56%E -5.33%K -28.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Betsson1.22I 81.97%NM 76.28%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -5.55%E -0.909%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 18:25
NordicBet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.28%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -5.55%E -0.909%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 18:25
888sport1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
888sport (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
William Hill1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:55
PointsBet (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 74.73%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-17 18:30
Bet Right1.23I 81.30%NM 74.88%EV -6.56%E -5.33%K -28.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-17 18:25
PlayUp1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-17 18:35
FanDuel1.18I 84.75%NM 76.09%EV -10.36%E -8.78%K -57.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.75%EV -11.74%E -2.06%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-17 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 74.61%EV -11.12%E -9.50%K -65.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.94%EV -5.95%E -0.541%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -22.58%E -4.52%K -5.64%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-17 18:46
theScore Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.98%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 18:25
Bovada1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 18:35
BetUS1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.09%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 18:35
Tipico (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -10.23%E -0.974%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -4.00%E -0.645%K -0.769%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 18:55
Betway1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-17 18:39
Betr (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Sky Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 73.53%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -22.58%E -4.52%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-17 18:50
PMU (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 74.76%EV -15.68%E -14.12%K -142.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.30%EV -14.50%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 16.94%EV -24.13%E -4.92%K -6.19%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-17 18:50
1xBet1.25I 80.00%NM 76.28%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%9.89I 10.11%NM 9.64%EV -15.44%E -1.56%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.08%EV +4.83%E +0.713%K +0.837%G +0.040%4.9%2026-03-17 18:55
Unibet1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Unibet (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
BetRivers1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Grosvenor1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Casumo1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
TABtouch1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Svenska Spel1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
ATG (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
betPARX1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -3.52%E -2.77%K -13.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -17.93%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 18:25
Neds1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Coral1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.32%E -6.00%K -33.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-17 18:25
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -8.84%E -7.37%K -44.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-17 18:10
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 74.75%EV -9.60%E -8.07%K -50.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.88%EV -13.29%E -2.37%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-17 18:32
Parions Sport (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 74.54%EV -9.60%E -8.07%K -50.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-17 18:35
NetBet (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 75.55%EV -13.40%E -11.75%K -95.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.07%EV -18.78%E -1.98%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.38%EV -13.29%E -2.37%K -2.89%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-17 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 72.34%EV -4.28%E -3.40%K -16.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -19.48%E -3.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-17 18:25
Winamax (DE)1.21I 82.64%NM 75.30%EV -8.08%E -6.68%K -38.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -3.22%E -0.516%K -0.614%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-17 18:25
LiveScore Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 72.50%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV -19.48%E -3.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-17 18:25
Virgin Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 72.50%EV -5.04%E -4.03%K -20.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV -19.48%E -3.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-17 18:25
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 72.42%EV -5.80%E -4.68%K -24.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -23.05%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -21.03%E -4.12%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Winamax (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 74.14%EV -9.60%E -8.07%K -50.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.38%EV -27.33%E -3.22%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.48%EV -11.74%E -2.06%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-17 18:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:55
Matchbook1.26I 79.37%NM 78.78%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%0.7%2026-03-17 18:50
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 78.39%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.76%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.85%2.1%2026-03-17 18:55