Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 v Monza

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 13:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 28.97%3.45fair odd
EV -0.650%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.267%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.16%29.01%29.06%31.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.113.103.4335.71%32.14%32.26%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monza (Visit)

Prediction 42.89%2.33fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.969%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.34%42.90%42.77%43.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.162.2850.00%46.09%46.30%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.427%
Kelly -0.598%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.14%28.09%28.17%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.253.253.5034.72%30.76%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 28.97%; Monza (Visit): 42.89%; Draw: 28.14%. For US Catanzaro 1929 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.43, with an expected value of -0.650%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.70%EV -0.650%E -0.189%K -0.267%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -6.93%E -3.19%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.53%EV -6.28%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 12:59
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.15%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.31%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-06 13:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.15%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.31%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.21%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.64%E -2.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.21%EV -4.31%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 12:59
Pinnacle🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.70%EV -2.39%E -0.708%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.18%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.12%EV -3.18%E -0.925%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-06 12:59
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 12:59
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.35%E -1.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.31%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 13:00
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.64%E -2.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.08%EV -8.64%E -4.06%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 12:53
BetUS🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.08%EV -8.64%E -4.06%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 12:59
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.64%E -2.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -1.49%E -0.427%K -0.598%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 12:58
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -5.64%E -2.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 13:00
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.64%E -2.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 13:00
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 12:59
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 12:59
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 13:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 12:59
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-06 13:00
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-06 13:00
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -12.07%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-06 13:00
theScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -4.31%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 13:00
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -6.50%E -2.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 12:59
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -6.50%E -2.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 12:59
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -9.07%E -4.28%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -11.34%E -3.60%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-06 12:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.64%E -2.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.31%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 12:59
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -12.07%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -12.07%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-06 12:58
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -12.07%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.75%E -4.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 29.11%EV -11.08%E -3.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.96%EV -10.79%E -5.19%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-06 13:00
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -11.66%E -3.82%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 12:59
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.12%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-06 12:59
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-06 12:59
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-06 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-06 13:00
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -12.07%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.75%E -4.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-06 13:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -12.07%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.75%E -4.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-06 12:59
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -14.22%E -7.11%K -14.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-06 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -14.22%E -7.11%K -14.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -18.94%E -6.58%K -10.08%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-06 13:00
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 12:58
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -2.21%E -0.969%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -3.50%E -1.55%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -16.00%E -5.52%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -3.50%E -1.55%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-06 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -16.00%E -5.52%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -3.50%E -1.55%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-06 13:00
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.33%EV -16.58%E -5.76%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.47%EV -4.35%E -1.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -9.94%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-06 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -18.90%E -6.75%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.40%EV -6.93%E -3.19%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -12.75%E -4.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-06 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29%1.0%2026-04-06 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29%1.0%2026-04-06 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29%1.0%2026-04-06 13:00
Matchbook3.60I 27.78%NM 27.17%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.28%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%2.2%2026-04-06 13:00
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 27.80%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.40%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.80%4.3%2026-04-06 13:00