Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 v Carrarese

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 15:16 UTC

Final: US Catanzaro 1929 1–0 Carrarese

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 52.68%1.90fair odd
EV -0.959%
Edge -0.510%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.51%52.81%52.72%55.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.761.751.8860.61%56.86%57.14%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carrarese (Visit)

Prediction 20.89%4.79fair odd
EV +2.77%
Edge +0.564%
Kelly +0.707%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.75%20.78%20.88%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.354.254.9227.40%23.01%23.53%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV -0.890%
Edge -0.237%
Kelly -0.323%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.40%26.41%27.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.443.403.7531.75%29.08%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 52.68%; Carrarese (Visit): 20.89%; Draw: 26.43%. For Carrarese (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.79. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.97%EV -5.70%E -3.18%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.64%EV +2.77%E +0.564%K +0.707%G +0.020%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.40%EV -3.27%E -0.893%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 14:56
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.42%EV -9.91%E -5.80%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV +2.36%E +0.481%K +0.604%G +0.014%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 15:06
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -12.02%E -7.20%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV +2.36%E +0.481%K +0.604%G +0.014%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 15:05
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -9.91%E -5.80%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV +0.267%E +0.056%K +0.070%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 15:06
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.41%EV -6.23%E -3.50%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.89%EV -0.151%E -0.032%K -0.040%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.70%EV -5.91%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 15:10
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -0.778%E -0.164%K -0.207%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.33%E -4.79%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -2.87%E -0.616%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -6.44%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.40%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 14:55
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 15:11
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:55
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:50
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.28%E -4.14%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:10
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.28%E -4.14%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:11
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.27%EV -12.02%E -7.20%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 15:05
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.05%EV -12.02%E -7.20%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.69%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 15:06
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -0.890%E -0.237%K -0.323%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 15:05
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:55
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:56
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:55
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 15:05
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.66%EV -3.07%E -1.67%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 15:00
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 15:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -8.33%E -4.79%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 15:00
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:00
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:09
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -8.33%E -4.79%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 14:55
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -10.44%E -6.14%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 14:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.62%EV -13.08%E -7.92%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.67%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.71%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-12 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 51.97%EV -10.97%E -6.49%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.17%EV -13.31%E -3.21%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 26.86%EV -13.58%E -4.15%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-12 15:01
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -0.959%E -0.510%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 15:00
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -6.23%E -3.50%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.14%EV -9.39%E -5.46%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.99%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:55
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.47%EV -7.28%E -4.14%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-12 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.62%EV -10.44%E -6.14%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.06%EV -18.53%E -4.75%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.32%EV -16.75%E -5.32%K -7.79%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-12 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.15%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -23.76%E -6.51%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Matchbook◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.2%2026-09-12 15:10