Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

US Catanzaro 1929 v Carrarese

Inicio: 2026-09-12 15:16 UTC

Final: US Catanzaro 1929 1–0 Carrarese

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Predicción 52.68%1.90momio equitativo
EV -0.959%
Ventaja -0.510%
Kelly -1.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.51%52.81%52.72%55.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.761.751.8860.61%56.86%57.14%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Carrarese (Visitante)

Predicción 20.89%4.79momio equitativo
EV +2.77%
Ventaja +0.564%
Kelly +0.707%
Crecimiento +0.020%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.75%20.78%20.88%24.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.654.354.254.9227.40%23.01%23.53%20.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.43%3.78momio equitativo
EV -0.890%
Ventaja -0.237%
Kelly -0.323%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.39%26.40%26.41%27.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.443.403.7531.75%29.08%29.41%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 52.68%; Carrarese (Visitante): 20.89%; Empate: 26.43%. Para Carrarese (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.79. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.92, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.77%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.97%EV -5.70%E -3.18%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.64%EV +2.77%E +0.564%K +0.707%G +0.020%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.40%EV -3.27%E -0.893%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 14:56
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.42%EV -9.91%E -5.80%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV +2.36%E +0.481%K +0.604%G +0.014%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 15:06
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -12.02%E -7.20%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV +2.36%E +0.481%K +0.604%G +0.014%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 15:05
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -9.91%E -5.80%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV +0.267%E +0.056%K +0.070%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 15:06
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.41%EV -6.23%E -3.50%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.89%EV -0.151%E -0.032%K -0.040%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.70%EV -5.91%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 15:10
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -0.778%E -0.164%K -0.207%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.33%E -4.79%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -2.87%E -0.616%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -6.44%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.40%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 14:55
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 15:11
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:55
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:50
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.28%E -4.14%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:10
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.28%E -4.14%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:11
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.27%EV -12.02%E -7.20%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 15:05
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.05%EV -12.02%E -7.20%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.69%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 15:06
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -0.890%E -0.237%K -0.323%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 15:05
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:55
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:56
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:55
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 15:05
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.66%EV -3.07%E -1.67%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -11.22%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 15:00
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 15:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -8.33%E -4.79%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 15:00
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:00
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:09
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -8.33%E -4.79%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 14:55
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -10.44%E -6.14%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 14:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.62%EV -13.08%E -7.92%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.67%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.71%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-12 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 51.97%EV -10.97%E -6.49%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.17%EV -13.31%E -3.21%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 26.86%EV -13.58%E -4.15%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-12 15:01
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -0.959%E -0.510%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 15:00
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -6.23%E -3.50%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.14%EV -9.39%E -5.46%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.99%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -6.75%E -3.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 15:00
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:55
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.86%E -5.12%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.47%EV -7.28%E -4.14%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-12 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.62%EV -10.44%E -6.14%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.06%EV -18.53%E -4.75%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.32%EV -16.75%E -5.32%K -7.79%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-12 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.15%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -23.76%E -6.51%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Matchbook◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-12 15:06
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.2%2026-09-12 15:10