La escuela de los momios

Spezia v Südtirol

Inicio: 2026-04-18 13:00 UTC

Final: Spezia 6–1 Südtirol

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Spezia (Local)

Predicción 40.90%2.45momio equitativo
EV -3.48%
Ventaja -1.47%
Kelly -2.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.14%40.87%40.97%42.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.272.302.3647.62%44.05%43.48%42.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Südtirol (Visitante)

Predicción 29.70%3.37momio equitativo
EV -0.817%
Ventaja -0.245%
Kelly -0.349%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.88%29.74%29.59%31.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.043.003.3435.71%32.89%33.33%29.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.41%3.40momio equitativo
EV -2.96%
Ventaja -0.898%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.21%29.40%29.44%31.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.103.103.3035.71%32.31%32.26%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.36I 42.37%NM 41.07%EV -3.48%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.02%EV -0.817%E -0.245%K -0.349%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.91%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-18 12:40
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -7.94%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.96%E -0.898%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 12:39
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.32%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -6.46%E -2.05%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 12:30
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:49
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:49
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.14%EV -4.70%E -2.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.45%EV -13.88%E -4.79%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 12:50
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.97%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 12:39
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.97%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 12:40
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -13.88%E -4.79%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 12:50
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -13.88%E -4.79%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 12:50
Codere (IT)2.31I 43.29%NM 41.11%EV -5.52%E -2.39%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.97%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 12:49
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 12:39
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 12:40
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 12:49
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 12:30
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 12:40
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 12:30
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 12:30
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 12:39
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -14.48%E -5.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-18 12:39
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 39.17%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.28%EV -14.48%E -5.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-18 12:49
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 41.51%EV -6.34%E -2.77%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -3.49%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 12:50
PlayUp2.28I 43.86%NM 39.66%EV -6.75%E -2.96%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -7.94%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -14.72%E -5.08%K -7.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 12:50
Marathon Bet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.29%EV -7.57%E -3.35%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -3.79%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.91%EV -8.26%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 12:50
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -4.97%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 12:50
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -2.00%E -0.608%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 12:50
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.94%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 12:50
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.94%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 12:49
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.94%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 12:40
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.97%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 12:50
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -12.40%E -4.20%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 12:40
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.88%E -4.79%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 12:40
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.88%E -4.79%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 12:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.88%E -4.79%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 12:40
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 39.37%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -16.85%E -6.02%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-18 12:50
Bovada2.22I 45.05%NM 41.45%EV -9.20%E -4.15%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -2.00%E -0.608%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:50
BetUS2.22I 45.05%NM 41.45%EV -9.20%E -4.15%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -2.00%E -0.608%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 12:49
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -4.97%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 12:50
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 12:50
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -4.97%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 12:49
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.94%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 12:50
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.69%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -9.43%E -3.09%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-18 12:50
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.50%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.44%EV -10.02%E -3.31%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.06%EV -9.73%E -3.17%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-18 12:48
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.91%E -3.64%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-18 12:40
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -7.94%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -14.72%E -5.08%K -7.75%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-18 12:50
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -14.11%E -6.72%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.15%EV -13.88%E -4.79%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-18 12:50
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.45%EV -14.11%E -6.72%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.54%EV -9.43%E -3.09%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -14.72%E -5.08%K -7.75%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-18 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -14.11%E -6.72%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -14.48%E -5.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -17.67%E -6.31%K -9.81%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-18 12:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%0.2%2026-04-18 12:50
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-04-18 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-04-18 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-04-18 12:50
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 42.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.71%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-04-18 12:50