Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sampdoria v Venezia

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 18:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sampdoria (Local)

Prediction 21.49%4.65fair odd
EV +4.85%
Edge +0.994%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 4.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.31%21.46%21.27%23.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.224.104.8825.32%23.72%24.39%20.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Venezia (Visit)

Prediction 50.37%1.99fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -4.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.70%50.38%50.50%51.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.821.831.9060.24%54.91%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.15%3.55fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.592%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.90%28.16%28.23%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.253.303.5037.04%30.78%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sampdoria (Local): 21.49%; Venezia (Visit): 50.37%; Draw: 28.15%. For Sampdoria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.65. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.88I 20.49%NM 19.81%EV +4.85%E +0.994%K +1.25%G +0.061%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.42%EV -5.31%E -2.83%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.77%EV -5.42%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 18:15
1xBet🎯4.78I 20.92%NM 19.87%EV +2.70%E +0.565%K +0.714%G +0.019%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.07%EV -6.32%E -3.40%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.05%EV -7.96%E -2.43%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV +0.981%E +0.209%K +0.265%G +0.003%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.40%EV -7.33%E -3.98%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.48%EV -6.55%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV +0.981%E +0.209%K +0.265%G +0.003%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.40%EV -7.33%E -3.98%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.48%EV -6.55%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 18:20
FanDuel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV +0.981%E +0.209%K +0.265%G +0.003%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.43%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -15.56%E -5.19%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -1.17%E -0.254%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 18:00
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -1.17%E -0.254%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 18:20
BetUS🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -1.17%E -0.254%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -3.32%E -0.737%K -0.947%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.40%EV -4.81%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 18:15
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -3.32%E -0.737%K -0.947%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.30%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 18:00
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -3.32%E -0.737%K -0.947%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.32%E -0.737%K -0.947%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.76%EV -7.33%E -3.98%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.48%EV -7.67%E -2.34%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 18:20
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -3.32%E -0.737%K -0.947%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -15.56%E -5.19%K -7.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-14 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -5.46%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 18:10
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.46%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 18:09
Paddy Power🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -5.46%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.27%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.58%EV -18.37%E -6.33%K -9.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-14 18:25
Betsson🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -6.54%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 18:10
NordicBet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -6.54%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 18:25
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -4.30%E -2.27%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 18:25
Betway🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 18:14
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.95%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.72%EV -10.85%E -6.13%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -15.56%E -5.19%K -7.78%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-14 18:14
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.70%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.43%EV -18.93%E -6.57%K -10.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.53%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.64%EV -15.89%E -9.51%K -23.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.82%EV -12.74%E -4.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-14 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.41%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.02%EV -15.38%E -9.16%K -22.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -15.56%E -5.19%K -7.78%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-14 18:19
theScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.91%E -2.90%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.30%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 18:25
Bet Victor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -11.91%E -2.90%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -4.30%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 18:14
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -11.91%E -2.90%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.11%EV -8.33%E -4.58%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 20.05%EV -11.91%E -2.90%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 49.51%EV -16.39%E -9.87%K -24.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.44%EV -24.00%E -8.89%K -14.12%G +0.000%21.7%2026-03-14 18:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 21.42%EV -12.98%E -3.21%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.14%EV -12.87%E -7.44%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-14 18:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -4.30%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 18:25
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:40
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.91%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 17:40
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:25
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.84%EV -8.33%E -4.58%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.84%EV -8.33%E -4.58%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.84%EV -8.33%E -4.58%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 18:25
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 18:15
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.39%EV -11.86%E -6.78%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -9.93%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-14 18:25
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -15.13%E -3.83%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.97%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-14 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.23%EV -15.13%E -3.83%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.89%EV -11.36%E -6.45%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -11.33%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-14 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-03-14 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-03-14 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-03-14 18:20
Matchbook5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-03-14 18:20
Smarkets4.90I 20.41%NM 19.95%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%2.3%2026-03-14 18:20