Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sampdoria v US Catanzaro 1929

2026-09-19 15:15 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sampdoria (Local)

Prediction 43.07%2.32fair odd
EV -5.25%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.25%43.07%42.62%43.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.092.122.2051.55%47.90%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit)

Prediction 28.00%3.57fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.987%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.92%28.00%28.46%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.293.303.4533.90%30.37%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.94%3.46fair odd
EV -7.41%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.20%28.94%28.91%29.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.153.2033.90%31.99%31.75%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sampdoria (Local): 43.07%; US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit): 28.00%; Draw: 28.94%. For US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.45, with an expected value of -3.41%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.37%EV -5.25%E -2.39%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.50%EV -8.45%E -2.58%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 15:30
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -7.41%E -3.44%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -10.41%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 15:25
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -7.41%E -3.44%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -10.41%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 15:25
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:25
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.70%E -4.10%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.41%E -0.987%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.41%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:09
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.71%E -5.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -6.21%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 15:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -11.71%E -5.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.54%EV -14.05%E -4.58%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -11.75%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-12 15:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -11.71%E -5.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -16.01%E -5.34%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-12 15:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -11.71%E -5.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.36%EV -17.41%E -5.90%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.40%EV -11.75%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-12 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.72%EV -12.14%E -5.95%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -7.61%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -11.75%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 15:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.72%EV -12.14%E -5.95%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -7.61%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -11.75%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 15:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.72%EV -12.14%E -5.95%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -7.61%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -11.75%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 15:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.65%EV -13.87%E -6.93%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV -16.01%E -5.34%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.92%EV -14.64%E -4.96%K -7.51%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-12 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 43.99%EV -16.45%E -8.48%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.09%EV -11.81%E -3.75%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.93%EV -14.64%E -4.96%K -7.51%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-12 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.