Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.04
assuming max odds 4.14
assuming max odds 3.60
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sampdoria (Local): 48.06%; US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit): 25.11%; Draw: 26.82%. For US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.97%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.09%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.36%EV +3.97%E +0.960%K +1.27%G +0.050% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.55%EV -5.85%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV +0.457%E +0.114%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 14:56 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV +0.457%E +0.114%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 15:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.45%EV -6.76%E -3.48%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +0.457%E +0.114%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-19 15:06 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.45%EV -6.76%E -3.48%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +0.457%E +0.114%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-19 15:06 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -11.08%E -5.99%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV +0.457%E +0.114%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.27%EV -8.68%E -4.57%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -2.05%E -0.527%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-19 15:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.46%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -3.31%E -0.860%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -3.31%E -0.860%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.21%EV -9.16%E -4.85%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.22%EV -3.56%E -0.927%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 15:01 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.39%EV -3.81%E -0.995%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.10%EV -4.83%E -2.44%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 15:06 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -10.12%E -5.41%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.82%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-19 14:56 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -11.08%E -5.99%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -5.82%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -16.85%E -5.44%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-19 14:56 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-19 15:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-19 14:56 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.64%EV -7.72%E -4.02%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -8.33%E -2.28%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.30%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-19 15:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.64%EV -7.72%E -4.02%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -8.33%E -2.28%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.30%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-19 15:06 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.87%E -1.94%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 15:01 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-19 14:51 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.08%EV -7.72%E -4.02%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-19 15:06 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.25%EV -12.52%E -6.88%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -10.84%E -3.05%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.02%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -1.95%E -0.956%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -1.95%E -0.956%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 14:51 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-19 14:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-19 15:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-19 15:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -8.68%E -4.57%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 15:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -8.68%E -4.57%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 14:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.20%E -4.29%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.94%EV -12.04%E -6.58%K -14.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -12.10%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-19 14:53 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.92%EV -12.04%E -6.58%K -14.51%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.27%EV -12.85%E -3.70%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 26.82%EV -12.29%E -3.76%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-19 15:03 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.67%EV -9.64%E -5.13%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -13.36%E -3.87%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-19 15:06 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.01%EV -4.83%E -2.44%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 14:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-19 14:51 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 48.51%EV -15.89%E -9.08%K -21.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.97%EV -14.61%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.53%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-09-19 15:06 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.80%E -2.96%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -15.87%E -4.74%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.71%EV -5.80%E -2.96%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -17.12%E -5.19%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.71%EV -5.80%E -2.96%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -17.12%E -5.19%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -6.76%E -3.48%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -17.12%E -5.19%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-19 14:41 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 45.91%EV -10.12%E -5.41%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.83%EV -19.63%E -6.14%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.26%EV -15.51%E -4.92%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-09-19 14:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91% | 0.9% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 15:02 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |