Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sampdoria v Juve Stabia

Inicio: 2026-08-29 17:02 UTC

Final: Sampdoria 1–2 Juve Stabia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sampdoria (Local)

Predicción 52.34%1.91momio equitativo
EV +0.498%
Ventaja +0.259%
Kelly +0.541%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.61%52.43%52.38%54.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.771.771.9260.61%56.43%56.50%52.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Juve Stabia (Visitante)

Predicción 19.90%5.02momio equitativo
EV +5.49%
Ventaja +1.04%
Kelly +1.28%
Crecimiento +0.070%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.75%19.83%19.82%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.554.505.3024.39%21.97%22.22%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.75%3.60momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -0.818%
Kelly -1.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.07%27.74%27.80%29.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.283.303.5033.33%30.51%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sampdoria (Local): 52.34%; Juve Stabia (Visitante): 19.90%; Empate: 27.75%. Para Juve Stabia (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.02. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.49%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.22%EV -6.83%E -3.84%K -8.76%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV +5.49%E +1.04%K +1.28%G +0.070%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 16:45
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -10.49%E -6.14%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV +3.50%E +0.673%K +0.834%G +0.029%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.29%EV -11.02%E -6.48%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV +3.50%E +0.673%K +0.834%G +0.029%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%EV -8.92%E -5.13%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -0.479%E -0.096%K -0.120%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 16:55
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.26%E -2.91%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.31%EV -2.07%E -0.421%K -0.529%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.19%EV -6.47%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 16:55
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.88%E -4.48%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -2.47%E -0.504%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.74%E -2.60%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.81%EV -4.46%E -0.929%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 16:45
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.72%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%EV -4.46%E -0.929%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.57%EV -6.83%E -3.84%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -4.46%E -0.929%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.57%EV -6.83%E -3.84%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -4.46%E -0.929%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.30%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.43%EV -4.46%E -0.929%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -5.08%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.89%EV -9.97%E -5.80%K -13.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -4.46%E -0.929%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.16%EV -10.36%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 16:39
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.46%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -5.46%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 16:40
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -5.46%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.50%EV -9.45%E -5.46%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -5.46%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.50%EV -9.45%E -5.46%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -5.46%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 16:50
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.02%EV -10.49%E -6.14%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.09%EV -5.46%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 15:50
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.44%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 16:55
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.44%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 16:54
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -8.44%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 16:40
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -8.44%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 16:40
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.14%EV -11.02%E -6.48%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -8.44%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.88%EV -13.63%E -8.26%K -20.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.97%EV -8.44%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-29 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.55%EV -3.17%E -1.71%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 16:55
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.85%EV -3.69%E -2.01%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 16:40
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:40
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.30%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:40
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 16:55
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -7.35%E -4.15%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 16:50
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.38%EV -11.02%E -6.48%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -10.43%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.48%EV -12.59%E -7.54%K -18.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.70%EV -11.43%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.82%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-29 16:40
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -7.35%E -4.15%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 16:50
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.94%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:55
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.94%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.94%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.94%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.22%EV -8.92%E -5.13%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 16:40
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -13.82%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.53%EV -6.83%E -3.84%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.92%EV -14.41%E -3.35%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.55%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.83%EV -9.97%E -5.80%K -13.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%EV -14.41%E -3.35%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-29 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -15.41%E -3.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 16:55
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.79%EV -5.78%E -3.21%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.51%EV -15.41%E -3.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.46%EV -7.88%E -4.48%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.90%EV -15.41%E -3.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 16:40
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV +0.498%E +0.259%K +0.541%G +0.003%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -16.40%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 16:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.94%EV -6.83%E -3.84%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.59%EV -16.40%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 16:55
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -16.40%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-29 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -16.40%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-29 16:55
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -16.40%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-29 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.03%EV -16.40%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -8.40%E -4.80%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.03%EV -16.40%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.47%EV -11.02%E -6.48%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.93%EV -18.39%E -4.49%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.60%EV -16.74%E -5.58%K -8.37%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-29 16:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.62%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.62%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-29 16:55
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.89%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.18%1.4%2026-08-29 16:55
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.47%1.8%2026-08-29 16:55