Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pisa v Virtus Entella

Inicio: 2026-09-11 19:00 UTC

Final: Pisa 1–4 Virtus Entella

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pisa (Local)

Predicción 53.55%1.87momio equitativo
EV -4.68%
Ventaja -2.63%
Kelly -6.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.10%53.62%53.48%55.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.611.721.721.7862.11%58.16%58.14%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Virtus Entella (Visitante)

Predicción 18.58%5.38momio equitativo
EV +3.70%
Ventaja +0.663%
Kelly +0.807%
Crecimiento +0.030%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.99%18.52%18.57%20.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.925.005.5823.81%20.31%20.00%17.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.87%3.59momio equitativo
EV -2.47%
Ventaja -0.705%
Kelly -0.987%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.83%27.85%27.95%29.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.283.303.5033.33%30.53%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Pisa (Local): 53.55%; Virtus Entella (Visitante): 18.58%; Empate: 27.87%. Para Virtus Entella (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.38. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.58, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.70%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.12%EV -7.89%E -4.59%K -10.96%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 16.99%EV +3.70%E +0.663%K +0.807%G +0.030%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.89%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.62%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV +2.21%E +0.402%K +0.491%G +0.011%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 09:54
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.76%EV -6.82%E -3.92%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV +2.21%E +0.402%K +0.491%G +0.011%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 09:59
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.07%EV -7.36%E -4.25%K -10.08%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.32%EV -1.51%E -0.284%K -0.350%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 09:59
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.83%EV -5.22%E -2.95%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.44%E -0.464%K -0.573%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 01:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.60%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -2.44%E -0.464%K -0.573%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -5.81%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.37%EV -4.68%E -2.63%K -6.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -3.36%E -0.647%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 10:54
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.94%EV -6.82%E -3.92%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -3.36%E -0.647%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -3.36%E -0.647%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 10:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -3.36%E -0.647%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 10:04
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -3.36%E -0.647%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 10:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.18%EV -10.57%E -6.33%K -15.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -3.36%E -0.647%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 11:50
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.20%EV -7.36%E -4.25%K -10.08%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.07%EV -3.55%E -0.684%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.74%EV -5.81%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 12:36
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.63%EV -4.68%E -2.63%K -6.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -2.47%E -0.705%K -0.987%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 00:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -4.68%E -2.63%K -6.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 10:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:24
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:24
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:25
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:24
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:35
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:25
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.33%EV -6.82%E -3.92%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 09:49
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 13:40
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 09:05
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.52%EV -7.36%E -4.25%K -10.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 09:55
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.45%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -7.08%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -16.40%E -5.47%K -8.20%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-09 09:55
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.95%EV -7.89%E -4.59%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.59%EV -8.94%E -1.82%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 10:54
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.95%EV -7.89%E -4.59%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.59%EV -8.94%E -1.82%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 10:54
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.14%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.63%EV -9.87%E -2.03%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 10:04
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 09:49
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 09:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 09:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 09:50
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 12:35
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 12:33
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.85%EV -9.50%E -5.62%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.54%EV -12.78%E -4.08%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 10:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.61%EV -12.71%E -7.80%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.20%EV -10.80%E -2.25%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-09 12:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.25%EV -6.82%E -3.92%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -11.73%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 00:04
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -11.73%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 20:24
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.38%EV -10.57%E -6.33%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%EV -11.73%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-08 16:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -12.66%E -2.69%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-09 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.27%EV -10.57%E -6.33%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.93%EV -12.66%E -2.69%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 20:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.04%EV -10.57%E -6.33%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -12.66%E -2.69%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -12.22%E -3.88%K -5.68%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-08 20:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.04%EV -10.57%E -6.33%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -12.66%E -2.69%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -12.22%E -3.88%K -5.68%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-08 20:24
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.29%E -3.59%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -14.51%E -3.16%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 00:04
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -14.51%E -3.16%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 00:04
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.62%EV -7.36%E -4.25%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -14.51%E -3.16%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -14.51%E -3.16%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-09 09:49
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -14.51%E -3.16%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-09 09:49
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.97%E -5.27%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -14.51%E -3.16%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-09 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.68%EV -10.04%E -5.97%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.67%EV -16.37%E -3.64%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 10:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.03%EV -13.78%E -8.56%K -22.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.97%EV -16.37%E -3.64%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.99%EV -15.01%E -4.92%K -7.32%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-08 20:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.10%EV -10.57%E -6.33%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -21.95%E -5.23%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.19%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-09 10:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 54.53%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%3.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 54.53%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%3.0%2026-09-09 15:20
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.39%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%3.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 55.24%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.06%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.70%4.6%2026-09-09 17:35
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 55.16%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.94%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%5.4%2026-09-09 17:40