Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pisa v US Catanzaro 1929

Inicio: 2026-08-30 19:03 UTC

Final: Pisa 2–1 US Catanzaro 1929

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pisa (Local)

Predicción 50.68%1.97momio equitativo
EV -3.71%
Ventaja -1.95%
Kelly -4.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.55%50.74%50.65%52.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.711.821.821.9058.48%55.02%54.95%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

US Catanzaro 1929 (Visitante)

Predicción 21.89%4.57momio equitativo
EV -0.178%
Ventaja -0.039%
Kelly -0.050%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.43%21.85%21.94%23.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.204.204.5625.64%23.82%23.81%21.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.43%3.65momio equitativo
EV -1.25%
Ventaja -0.348%
Kelly -0.482%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.70%27.41%27.41%28.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.333.353.6032.79%30.04%29.85%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Pisa (Local): 50.68%; US Catanzaro 1929 (Visitante): 21.89%; Empate: 27.43%. Para US Catanzaro 1929 (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.57. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.56, con un valor esperado de -0.178%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -3.71%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 18:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.37%EV -4.22%E -2.23%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -3.68%E -0.836%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 17:25
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.54%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.02%EV -1.05%E -0.233%K -0.299%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.45%EV -8.38%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.95%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -4.77%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 17:20
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -5.23%E -2.80%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -1.49%E -0.331%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 10:24
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -5.23%E -2.80%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.23%E -2.80%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 18:55
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.31%EV -5.74%E -3.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-26 08:19
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.09%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.13%EV -0.178%E -0.039%K -0.050%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.77%EV -1.25%E -0.348%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.11%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 08:19
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 18:45
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -13.53%E -3.43%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:55
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 18:50
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 18:30
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:35
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:35
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 18:55
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.26%E -3.97%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -7.76%E -4.27%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -3.68%E -0.836%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -7.76%E -4.27%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -3.68%E -0.836%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 18:50
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -7.76%E -4.27%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -3.68%E -0.836%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.11%EV -7.76%E -4.27%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.25%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 17:19
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.69%EV -7.76%E -4.27%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -10.25%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -12.22%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -7.76%E -4.27%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -14.63%E -3.75%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-30 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.61%EV -8.27%E -4.57%K -10.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -3.68%E -0.836%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.16%EV -5.64%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -3.68%E -0.836%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 18:48
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 18:49
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.88%EV -9.15%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.68%EV -10.03%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 18:34
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.96%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -10.25%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -12.22%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-26 08:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.85%E -3.34%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 17:20
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.22%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 18:50
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.22%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.78%E -4.88%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.22%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 18:45
SportsBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -9.28%E -5.19%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.02%EV -9.79%E -5.50%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -10.25%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-26 08:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.89%EV -10.30%E -5.82%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-26 08:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.89%EV -10.30%E -5.82%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-26 08:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -11.31%E -6.46%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -1.49%E -0.331%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.31%E -6.46%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.31%E -6.46%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 18:50
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.82%EV -11.31%E -6.46%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.95%EV -9.48%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 18:34
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -11.31%E -6.46%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.85%E -3.34%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.73%EV -12.32%E -7.12%K -16.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -10.25%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-30 18:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.54%EV -12.83%E -7.46%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.29%EV -14.63%E -3.75%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.17%EV -12.22%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-30 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.02%EV -13.34%E -7.80%K -18.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.93%EV -14.63%E -3.75%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.05%EV -16.34%E -5.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-26 08:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.82%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-08-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.04%1.3%2026-08-30 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.04%1.3%2026-08-30 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.04%1.3%2026-08-30 18:55
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.28%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.19%2.1%2026-08-30 18:55