Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.64
assuming max odds 5.98
assuming max odds 4.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palermo (Local): 58.46%; Sampdoria (Visit): 17.71%; Draw: 23.82%. For Sampdoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.64. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.94%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.98I 16.72%NM 16.12%EV +5.94%E +0.992%K +1.19%G +0.071% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.72%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.76%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +2.75%E +0.474%K +0.572%G +0.016% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-07 18:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -11.14%E -7.33%K -21.42%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%EV +0.975%E +0.171%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.75%EV -5.29%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.85%EV +0.089%E +0.016%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -5.29%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -4.70%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-07 18:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -7.63%E -4.83%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.70%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.47%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -2.57%E -0.467%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -4.34%E -0.804%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.32%E -0.566%K -0.749%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -4.34%E -0.804%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -8.28%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.65%EV -7.05%E -4.43%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -5.23%E -0.977%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-07 18:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -7.00%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -4.70%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -7.00%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.12%E -2.51%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.88%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.71%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -9.65%E -1.89%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.45%EV -7.56%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -9.65%E -1.89%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -8.28%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -9.65%E -1.89%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -8.28%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.47%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.47%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 18:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.47%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.47%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.47%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-07 18:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-07 18:13 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.41%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -14.23%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -11.85%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.16%EV -10.55%E -6.90%K -19.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -11.85%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.77%EV -10.55%E -6.90%K -19.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -11.43%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -14.23%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 58.88%EV -12.89%E -8.65%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.72%EV -12.31%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.54%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -13.20%E -2.69%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -4.70%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.35%EV -7.63%E -4.83%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -13.20%E -2.69%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.66%E -2.84%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.47%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -13.20%E -2.69%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -14.23%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.73%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.18%EV -13.20%E -2.69%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.09%EV -15.42%E -4.34%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 57.69%EV -11.72%E -7.76%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.78%EV -13.20%E -2.69%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.54%EV -15.42%E -4.34%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.29%EV -9.97%E -6.47%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -14.97%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -7.09%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -14.97%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -11.85%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -14.97%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -11.85%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-07 18:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -14.97%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -11.85%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-07 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -14.97%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -16.62%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-07 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -14.97%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -16.62%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.98%EV -10.55%E -6.90%K -19.91%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -9.47%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 56.64%EV -11.72%E -7.76%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.20%EV -16.74%E -3.56%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.16%EV -19.00%E -5.59%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-09-07 17:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.23% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.24% | 0.6% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.23% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.24% | 0.6% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.23% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.24% | 0.6% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.38% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15% | 1.0% | 2026-09-07 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.87% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.43% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70% | 1.2% | 2026-09-07 18:20 |