La escuela de los momios

Padova v US Catanzaro 1929

Inicio: 2026-03-14 14:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Padova (Local)

Predicción 27.82%3.60momio equitativo
EV +2.92%
Ventaja +0.788%
Kelly +1.08%
Crecimiento +0.032%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.03%27.92%27.76%30.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.953.223.213.7033.90%31.06%31.15%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

US Catanzaro 1929 (Visitante)

Predicción 43.55%2.30momio equitativo
EV -2.02%
Ventaja -0.896%
Kelly -1.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.55%43.49%43.58%45.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.902.132.112.2552.63%46.91%47.39%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.64%3.49momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.434%
Kelly -0.612%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.87%28.59%28.66%30.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.183.203.4437.04%31.48%31.25%29.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV +2.92%E +0.788%K +1.08%G +0.032%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.64%EV -8.11%E -3.84%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.33%EV -2.64%E -0.776%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 13:55
LowVig.ag3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV +2.92%E +0.788%K +1.08%G +0.032%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.64%EV -8.11%E -3.84%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.33%EV -2.64%E -0.776%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 13:55
Pinnacle3.58I 27.93%NM 27.04%EV -0.420%E -0.117%K -0.163%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.82%EV -5.94%E -2.75%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.14%EV -1.49%E -0.434%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 13:55
Coolbet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -2.65%E -0.756%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.80%EV -4.19%E -1.91%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.68%EV -3.78%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 13:55
DraftKings3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -4.04%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.15%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.07%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 13:50
Bovada3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -4.04%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.63%EV -10.29%E -5.00%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 13:52
Codere (IT)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.43%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.19%E -1.91%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 13:55
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.43%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.19%E -1.91%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 13:50
1xBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.43%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.56%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.90%EV -7.22%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 13:55
Marathon Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.43%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.82%EV -7.24%E -3.40%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 13:50
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.43%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 13:45
Tipico (DE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.43%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 13:50
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -5.43%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 13:55
Unibet (UK)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.82%E -2.04%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -4.19%E -1.91%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 13:50
BetUS3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.82%E -2.04%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.92%EV -8.98%E -4.30%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 13:50
Betsson3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:50
NordicBet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:50
Betway3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 13:55
888sport3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 13:50
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 13:50
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 13:50
888sport (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 13:50
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Neds3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 13:45
Coral3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 13:45
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -16.96%E -5.85%K -8.92%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-14 13:55
Betclic (FR)3.22I 31.06%NM 27.71%EV -10.43%E -3.24%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.52%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 13:50
PointsBet (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.19%E -1.91%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 13:45
theScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.19%E -1.91%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 13:45
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -2.64%E -0.776%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 13:49
Winamax (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 13:50
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 13:45
Sky Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 27.29%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.60%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -16.96%E -5.85%K -8.92%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-14 13:55
Bet Right3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -12.38%E -3.93%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:55
Parions Sport (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -12.38%E -3.93%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.45%EV -12.90%E -6.45%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-14 13:50
NetBet (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 27.39%EV -12.38%E -3.93%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 43.36%EV -13.34%E -6.70%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.25%EV -15.52%E -5.26%K -7.96%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-14 13:49
Betr (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 13:55
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.90%E -6.45%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-14 13:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -16.82%E -8.81%K -18.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%17.9%2026-03-14 13:55
Winamax (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -15.16%E -4.97%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -10.73%E -5.23%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 13:50
Unibet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
Casumo3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
Grosvenor3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
BetRivers3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
Unibet (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
Unibet (NL)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
TABtouch3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
betPARX3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
ATG (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
Svenska Spel3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:40
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 27.10%EV -16.55%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 42.79%EV -17.26%E -9.08%K -19.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.11%EV -22.68%E -8.40%K -13.34%G +0.000%23.0%2026-03-14 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -17.94%E -6.08%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -2.02%E -0.896%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 13:40
LiveScore Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -17.94%E -6.08%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.77%EV -2.89%E -1.29%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-14 13:40
Virgin Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -17.94%E -6.08%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.77%EV -2.89%E -1.29%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-14 13:40
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -17.94%E -6.08%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -4.19%E -1.91%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-14 13:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-03-14 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-03-14 13:50
Matchbook3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-03-14 13:50
Smarkets3.60I 27.78%NM 27.17%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.06%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.77%2.2%2026-03-14 13:55