La escuela de los momios

Padova v Palermo

Inicio: 2026-03-21 14:04 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Padova (Local)

Predicción 19.23%5.20momio equitativo
EV +1.53%
Ventaja +0.290%
Kelly +0.358%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.68%19.41%19.12%21.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.104.734.755.2824.39%21.16%21.05%18.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Palermo (Visitante)

Predicción 57.04%1.75momio equitativo
EV -2.47%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -3.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.56%56.76%57.09%58.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.481.621.621.7167.57%61.70%61.73%58.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.73%4.21momio equitativo
EV +0.156%
Ventaja +0.037%
Kelly +0.049%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.22

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.49%23.83%23.79%26.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.783.804.2230.77%26.44%26.32%23.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle5.28I 18.94%NM 18.24%EV +1.53%E +0.290%K +0.358%G +0.005%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.38%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.38%EV -2.22%E -0.538%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-21 13:59
Tipico (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -0.007%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-21 14:00
FanDuel5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -1.93%E -0.378%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.12%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Marathon Bet5.05I 19.80%NM 18.43%EV -2.89%E -0.572%K -0.714%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.75%EV -6.96%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 13:59
1xBet5.02I 19.92%NM 18.91%EV -3.47%E -0.691%K -0.863%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.60%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.49%EV +0.156%E +0.037%K +0.049%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 13:59
Coolbet5.00I 20.00%NM 19.13%EV -3.85%E -0.771%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.95%EV -4.18%E -2.49%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 13:59
LowVig.ag5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11%EV -3.85%E -0.771%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.57%EV -5.32%E -3.20%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -2.69%E -0.656%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 13:59
BetOnline.ag5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11%EV -3.85%E -0.771%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.57%EV -5.32%E -3.20%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -2.69%E -0.656%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 14:00
Fanatics5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -3.85%E -0.771%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 13:59
Codere (IT)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -3.85%E -0.771%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.72%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -2.69%E -0.656%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 14:00
Unibet (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -3.85%E -0.771%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Bet Victor5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -3.85%E -0.771%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -10.45%E -6.66%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 13:59
Bovada4.95I 20.20%NM 18.65%EV -4.81%E -0.973%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 13:58
BetUS4.95I 20.20%NM 18.65%EV -4.81%E -0.973%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 13:59
Betsson4.85I 20.62%NM 19.01%EV -6.74%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 13:59
NordicBet4.85I 20.62%NM 19.01%EV -6.74%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 13:59
William Hill4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -7.70%E -1.60%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-21 13:59
888sport4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.70%E -1.60%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 13:59
888sport (SE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.70%E -1.60%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 13:59
Mr Green (SE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.70%E -1.60%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 13:59
BetMGM4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-21 13:59
PointsBet (AU)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 13:59
Unibet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Grosvenor4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Casumo4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Unibet (NL)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Unibet (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
TABtouch4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
betPARX4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Svenska Spel4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
ATG (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:00
BetRivers4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.42%EV -5.32%E -3.20%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 13:46
Bet Right4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -6.46%E -3.94%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.00%E -2.93%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 13:59
SportsBet4.75I 21.05%NM 18.84%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.59%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -16.93%E -4.84%K -6.77%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -8.66%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.74%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -16.93%E -4.84%K -6.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -9.62%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.80%EV -6.46%E -3.94%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 14:00
Virgin Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -9.62%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.76%EV -7.03%E -4.31%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 14:00
LiveScore Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -9.62%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.76%EV -7.03%E -4.31%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 14:00
Betr (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -11.54%E -2.51%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.87%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 13:59
PlayUp4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -11.54%E -2.51%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.35%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -11.00%E -2.93%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-21 13:57
LeoVegas4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -11.54%E -2.51%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -14.56%E -4.04%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-21 14:00
Sky Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 19.13%EV -11.54%E -2.51%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.99%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -19.31%E -5.68%K -8.04%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-21 14:00
Parions Sport (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.10%EV -11.54%E -2.51%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.79%EV -13.30%E -8.75%K -25.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-21 13:59
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -13.47%E -2.99%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 13:59
BoyleSports4.50I 22.22%NM 19.66%EV -13.47%E -2.99%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.07%EV -11.59%E -7.48%K -21.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-21 14:00
NetBet (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.38%EV -13.47%E -2.99%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.37%EV -13.30%E -8.75%K -25.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%EV -11.00%E -2.93%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-21 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -13.47%E -2.99%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -10.45%E -6.66%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -21.68%E -6.57%K -9.43%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-21 14:00
DraftKings4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -15.39%E -3.50%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -2.47%E -1.44%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 14:00
theScore Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -15.39%E -3.50%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -15.39%E -3.50%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 14:00
Neds4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -15.39%E -3.50%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 13:59
Coral4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -15.39%E -3.50%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 14:00
PMU (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 18.77%EV -15.39%E -3.50%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 55.81%EV -15.59%E -10.53%K -32.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.42%EV -22.87%E -7.04%K -10.16%G +0.000%21.1%2026-03-21 14:00
Winamax (DE)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -17.31%E -4.03%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.16%EV -6.46%E -3.94%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 14:00
Betclic (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -21.16%E -5.16%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.56%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.89%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-21 14:00
Winamax (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -21.16%E -5.16%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.86%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.73%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-21 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-03-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-03-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-03-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.44%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.42%2.4%2026-03-21 14:00
Smarkets5.20I 19.23%NM 18.47%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%4.1%2026-03-21 14:00