Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.06
assuming max odds 3.00
assuming max odds 3.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monza (Local): 32.78%; Venezia (Visit): 37.27%; Draw: 29.95%. For Venezia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.82%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -4.94%E -1.70%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV +11.82%E +3.94%K +5.91%G +0.699% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -20.64%E -7.79%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-18 04:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.025%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.98%EV -2.34%E -0.894%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 16:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.66%E -0.555%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.14%EV -7.76%E -2.52%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.66%E -0.555%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.14%EV -7.76%E -2.52%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.80%EV -13.79%E -5.24%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -3.09%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -4.94%E -1.70%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.37%EV -4.95%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -4.17%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -8.22%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -4.95%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -1.17%E -0.356%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -6.58%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -4.95%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -9.86%E -3.58%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -4.95%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.56%EV -13.79%E -5.24%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.64%EV -4.95%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 15:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.56%EV -13.79%E -5.24%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.64%EV -4.95%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 15:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.65%EV -14.78%E -5.68%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%EV -4.95%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-21 15:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.58%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.84%EV -5.70%E -2.25%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -8.36%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -3.30%E -1.12%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.86%E -3.58%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -4.17%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.17%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -1.66%E -0.555%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -14.65%E -5.14%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.22%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 15:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -4.94%E -1.70%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.00%EV -7.19%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -11.66%E -3.95%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -4.94%E -1.70%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.00%EV -7.19%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -11.66%E -3.95%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -7.56%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.32%EV -7.56%E -3.05%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -7.56%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.32%EV -7.56%E -3.05%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -6.58%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.68%E -3.54%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -13.15%E -4.54%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 16:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -8.68%E -3.54%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.10%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.44%EV -8.68%E -3.54%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.46%EV -17.64%E -6.42%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.03%EV +0.303%E +0.099%K +0.147%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -9.05%E -3.71%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.05%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -3.30%E -1.12%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -1.66%E -0.555%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -11.66%E -3.95%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -5.60%E -1.94%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.95%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.25%EV -17.64%E -6.42%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.86%E -3.58%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -11.29%E -4.74%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -2.67%E -0.822%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.86%E -3.58%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -11.29%E -4.74%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -2.67%E -0.822%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.86%E -3.58%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -11.29%E -4.74%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -2.67%E -0.822%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.86%E -3.58%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -11.29%E -4.74%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -2.67%E -0.822%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -8.22%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -11.29%E -4.74%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.15%E -4.54%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.12%EV -8.22%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 36.61%EV -11.29%E -4.74%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.27%EV -19.14%E -7.09%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 32.66%EV -10.51%E -3.85%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.62%EV -11.66%E -4.92%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-21 16:02 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -8.22%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -11.66%E -4.92%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -13.15%E -4.54%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -8.22%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -11.66%E -4.92%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -13.15%E -4.54%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.64%EV -14.78%E -5.68%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.21%EV -12.41%E -5.28%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 31.98%EV -10.84%E -3.99%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.50%EV -13.52%E -5.83%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.52%EV -14.65%E -5.14%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.86%E -3.58%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -14.27%E -6.20%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -1.17%E -0.356%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -14.27%E -6.20%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.20%EV -14.12%E -5.39%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -14.27%E -6.20%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 31.29%EV -14.78%E -5.68%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 36.16%EV -16.13%E -7.17%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 32.55%EV -25.13%E -10.05%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 22.9% | 2026-03-21 16:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -8.22%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -21.72%E -10.35%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -13.75%E -4.77%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-03-21 16:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.39% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.72% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.89% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |