La escuela de los momios

Modena v Reggiana

Inicio: 2026-05-01 13:06 UTC

Final: Modena 2–1 Reggiana

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Modena (Local)

Predicción 59.20%1.69momio equitativo
EV -4.09%
Ventaja -2.52%
Kelly -6.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.44%59.19%59.31%60.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.471.551.561.6268.03%64.35%64.10%61.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Reggiana (Visitante)

Predicción 17.10%5.85momio equitativo
EV +3.13%
Ventaja +0.520%
Kelly +0.623%
Crecimiento +0.020%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.03

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.89%17.08%17.05%18.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.295.306.0322.22%18.89%18.87%16.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.69%4.22momio equitativo
EV +0.691%
Ventaja +0.163%
Kelly +0.213%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.38%23.73%23.64%25.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.803.804.2530.30%26.29%26.32%23.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -5.27%E -3.30%K -8.79%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.89%EV +3.13%E +0.520%K +0.623%G +0.020%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.20%EV -6.18%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-01 12:59
Betway1.57I 63.69%NM 60.04%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -1.66%E -0.288%K -0.349%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 13:03
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 60.02%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -1.66%E -0.288%K -0.349%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -6.42%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 13:05
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.91%EV -5.86%E -3.69%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.43%EV -2.51%E -0.440%K -0.534%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 13:03
Marathon Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.81%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -3.37%E -0.596%K -0.724%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -6.65%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-01 12:58
Bovada1.55I 64.52%NM 59.36%EV -8.23%E -5.31%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -4.22%E -0.754%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-01 12:59
BetUS1.55I 64.52%NM 59.36%EV -8.23%E -5.31%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -4.22%E -0.754%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-01 13:03
1xBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.60%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.59I 17.89%NM 17.02%EV -4.39%E -0.786%K -0.957%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV +0.691%E +0.163%K +0.213%G +0.001%5.1%2026-05-01 12:59
Coolbet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -4.09%E -2.52%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-01 12:59
Fanatics1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -5.86%E -3.69%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 13:02
theScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-01 13:04
LowVig.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -6.46%E -4.09%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-01 12:59
BetOnline.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -6.46%E -4.09%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-01 12:59
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-01 12:59
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -11.19%E -7.46%K -22.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-01 13:05
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -5.93%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 13:02
Codere (IT)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.68%E -2.91%K -7.67%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.86%E -0.698%K -0.923%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-01 13:02
Unibet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-01 13:04
Unibet (NL)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 13:04
Unibet (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 13:03
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 13:04
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 12:50
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 13:04
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 13:04
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 13:04
betPARX1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.64%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 13:04
Betsson1.52I 65.79%NM 59.74%EV -10.01%E -6.58%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 16.97%EV -8.50%E -1.59%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-01 13:04
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 58.89%EV -6.46%E -4.09%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.56%EV -9.35%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.42%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-01 12:59
LiveScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 58.47%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -9.35%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 13:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.47%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -9.35%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 13:04
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 58.47%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -9.35%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 13:04
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -5.27%E -3.30%K -8.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -10.21%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-01 13:04
PointsBet (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 58.10%EV -5.86%E -3.69%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -10.21%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-01 12:59
Bet Right1.58I 63.29%NM 58.25%EV -6.46%E -4.09%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -10.21%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-01 12:59
Virgin Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 57.99%EV -7.64%E -4.90%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.23%EV -10.21%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.78%EV -13.52%E -3.71%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-01 13:04
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -10.21%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-01 13:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -10.21%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-01 13:05
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 59.27%EV -10.01%E -6.58%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -11.06%E -2.13%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.40%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-01 13:05
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 58.56%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -11.06%E -2.13%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-01 13:04
PMU (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.45%EV -11.19%E -7.46%K -22.39%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.19%EV -12.77%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -14.71%E -4.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-01 13:03
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.56%EV -6.46%E -4.09%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-01 12:59
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 57.37%EV -6.46%E -4.09%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-01 13:00
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-01 13:04
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-01 13:03
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -8.23%E -5.31%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-01 13:04
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -8.23%E -5.31%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-01 12:59
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-01 12:59
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-01 12:59
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-01 13:04
Sky Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 57.05%EV -8.23%E -5.31%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -17.08%E -4.88%K -6.83%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-01 13:04
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 57.77%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -14.71%E -4.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-01 13:04
Betclic (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -11.19%E -7.46%K -22.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-01 13:03
NetBet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.31%EV -12.97%E -8.82%K -27.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.44%EV -14.48%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-01 12:59
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.61%EV -11.19%E -7.46%K -22.39%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -16.19%E -3.30%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -11.16%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-01 13:05
Unibet (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 58.29%EV -11.79%E -7.91%K -24.05%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.91%EV -17.05%E -3.52%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.80%EV -13.52%E -3.71%K -5.10%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-01 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%EV -9.42%E -6.15%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.85%EV -23.03%E -5.12%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.71%EV -21.82%E -6.61%K -9.49%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-01 13:03
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-05-01 13:05
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.08%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%1.5%2026-05-01 13:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.30%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%1.6%2026-05-01 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.35%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-05-01 13:05
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.30%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%2.3%2026-05-01 13:05