Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena v Frosinone

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 13:00 UTC

Final: Modena 1–2 Frosinone

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena (Local)

Prediction 35.44%2.82fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.920%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.67%35.50%35.43%38.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.542.552.7543.48%39.40%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frosinone (Visit)

Prediction 37.47%2.67fair odd
EV -0.703%
Edge -0.265%
Kelly -0.426%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.56%37.40%37.46%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.502.492.6545.45%40.04%40.16%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.09%3.69fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -0.957%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.10%27.11%27.11%28.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.363.403.6033.33%29.78%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modena (Local): 35.44%; Frosinone (Visit): 37.47%; Draw: 27.09%. For Frosinone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.703%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -2.53%E -0.920%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.26%EV -2.58%E -0.991%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.52%EV -4.66%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-18 12:40
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -2.53%E -0.920%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-18 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -3.59%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.33%EV -5.57%E -2.21%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -9.26%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 12:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -3.59%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.33%EV -5.57%E -2.21%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -9.26%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 12:39
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -4.30%E -1.59%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.93%EV -5.37%E -2.01%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.15%EV -5.95%E -2.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -9.53%E -2.85%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 12:50
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.69%EV -5.72%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.80%EV -3.33%E -1.29%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.55%E -1.90%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 12:50
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -6.08%E -2.29%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -4.45%E -1.75%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -2.49%E -0.691%K -0.957%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 12:39
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -6.08%E -2.29%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -4.45%E -1.75%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -6.55%E -1.90%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 12:30
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.08%E -2.29%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.32%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 12:40
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.82%EV -6.08%E -2.29%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.21%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 12:50
BetUS🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.82%EV -6.08%E -2.29%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.21%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 12:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -6.08%E -2.29%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:50
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 12:50
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 12:49
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 12:40
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 12:50
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 12:40
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 12:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -7.85%E -3.02%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -2.58%E -0.991%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 12:39
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.85%E -3.02%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -13.32%E -4.16%K -6.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 12:40
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -7.85%E -3.02%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -10.82%E -4.55%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -16.03%E -5.17%K -7.63%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-18 12:50
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -9.62%E -3.77%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.32%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 12:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -9.62%E -3.77%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.32%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 12:40
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -9.62%E -3.77%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 12:49
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -9.62%E -3.77%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -6.32%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.62%E -3.77%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-18 12:50
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.62%E -3.77%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-18 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -9.62%E -3.77%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -11.94%E -5.08%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -9.26%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-18 12:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -11.39%E -4.56%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.32%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 12:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.39%E -4.56%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 12:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.39%E -4.56%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-18 12:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.39%E -4.56%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-18 12:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.39%E -4.56%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-18 12:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -11.39%E -4.56%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.06%EV -11.94%E -5.08%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -16.03%E -5.17%K -7.63%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-18 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.67%EV -11.39%E -4.56%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.27%EV -17.56%E -7.98%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.06%EV -18.74%E -6.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%18.8%2026-04-18 12:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.22%EV -12.10%E -4.88%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.31%EV -14.57%E -6.39%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.47%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-18 12:38
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -13.16%E -5.37%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -13.82%E -6.01%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -9.26%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-18 12:50
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:40
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:39
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:40
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:40
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:40
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -0.703%E -0.265%K -0.426%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 12:49
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.95%EV -14.94%E -6.22%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.51%EV -13.82%E -6.01%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.54%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-18 12:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -15.65%E -6.57%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.60%EV -1.45%E -0.552%K -0.891%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.26%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 12:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -15.65%E -6.57%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.60%EV -1.45%E -0.552%K -0.891%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.26%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 12:40
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -16.71%E -7.11%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -2.58%E -0.991%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -9.26%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-18 12:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -18.48%E -8.04%K -14.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.56%EV -4.45%E -1.75%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-18 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.26%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79%1.4%2026-04-18 12:50
Matchbook2.88I 34.72%NM 34.26%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79%1.4%2026-04-18 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.42%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.86%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-04-18 12:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.42%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.86%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-04-18 12:50
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 34.18%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.93%2.3%2026-04-18 12:50