Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia v Sampdoria

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 19:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia (Local)

Prediction 38.83%2.58fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.81%38.61%38.82%39.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.362.372.5046.51%42.37%42.19%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sampdoria (Visit)

Prediction 29.06%3.44fair odd
EV -0.317%
Edge -0.092%
Kelly -0.130%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%29.53%28.97%32.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.133.103.4337.74%31.95%32.26%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.11%3.11fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.366%
Kelly +0.536%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.72%31.86%32.21%33.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.882.903.1540.00%34.68%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juve Stabia (Local): 38.83%; Sampdoria (Visit): 29.06%; Draw: 32.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -2.94%E -1.17%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -17.17%E -6.03%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV +1.15%E +0.366%K +0.536%G +0.006%6.8%2026-03-04 19:00
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -17.17%E -6.03%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -0.453%E -0.146%K -0.216%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 19:00
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.25%EV -6.04%E -2.50%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.41%EV -6.13%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.35%EV -2.70%E -0.891%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 18:59
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 18:59
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 18:53
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-04 19:00
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-04 18:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -20.08%E -7.30%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-04 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.27%E -1.79%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -5.27%E -1.79%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -5.27%E -1.79%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-04 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -5.27%E -1.79%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-04 19:00
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -11.36%E -3.72%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -5.27%E -1.79%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-04 19:00
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.87%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.22%EV -0.317%E -0.092%K -0.130%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.92%EV -5.59%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-04 18:59
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.88%E -2.37%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-04 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.88%E -2.37%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 18:59
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.88%E -2.37%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-04 18:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.72%EV -21.53%E -7.97%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -6.88%E -2.37%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-04 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.08%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -22.99%E -8.67%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.04%EV -6.88%E -2.37%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-04 19:00
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -7.52%E -2.61%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 19:00
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -7.52%E -2.61%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-04 18:59
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -7.52%E -2.61%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-04 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.95%EV -2.94%E -1.17%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -8.48%E -2.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 18:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.95%EV -2.94%E -1.17%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -8.48%E -2.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -8.48%E -2.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-04 18:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.71%EV -6.43%E -2.67%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -4.68%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.85%EV -8.80%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 18:58
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -1.19%E -0.350%K -0.495%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 18:59
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 19:00
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 18:59
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 18:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -12.64%E -5.62%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-04 18:59
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.30%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.82%EV -15.72%E -5.42%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.88%EV -10.09%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-04 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -1.19%E -0.350%K -0.495%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.69%E -4.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -7.98%E -3.37%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.40%EV -11.69%E -4.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-04 19:00
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -7.98%E -3.37%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -11.69%E -4.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-04 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -7.98%E -3.37%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -11.69%E -4.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-04 19:00
Bovada🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.32%EV -6.43%E -2.67%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.70%EV -12.01%E -4.38%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 18:57
BetUS🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.32%EV -6.43%E -2.67%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.70%EV -12.01%E -4.38%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 18:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.15%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.19%EV -14.27%E -4.84%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.66%EV -12.66%E -4.65%K -7.36%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-04 18:58
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -13.30%E -4.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 19:00
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -13.30%E -4.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-04 19:00
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -13.30%E -4.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-04 19:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 38.81%EV -16.52%E -7.69%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.81%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.38%EV -19.72%E -7.89%K -13.15%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-04 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%0.5%2026-03-04 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.79%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01%0.7%2026-03-04 19:00
Smarkets2.54I 39.37%NM 38.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.93%1.6%2026-03-04 19:00
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.26%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.85%1.9%2026-03-04 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 38.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.26%2.0%2026-03-04 19:00