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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Hellas Verona v Vicenza

Inicio: 2026-09-20 13:02 UTC

Final: Hellas Verona 2–1 Vicenza

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hellas Verona (Local)

Predicción 50.70%1.97momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -1.94%
Kelly -4.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.84%50.77%50.68%53.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.661.821.831.9060.24%54.81%54.64%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vicenza (Visitante)

Predicción 22.44%4.46momio equitativo
EV +4.13%
Ventaja +0.889%
Kelly +1.13%
Crecimiento +0.047%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.20%22.34%22.50%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.604.054.004.6427.78%24.71%25.00%21.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.86%3.72momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -0.915%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.91%26.90%26.82%28.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.403.403.6032.26%29.39%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hellas Verona (Local): 50.70%; Vicenza (Visitante): 22.44%; Empate: 26.86%. Para Vicenza (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.46. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.64, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.13%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.40%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.83%EV +4.13%E +0.889%K +1.13%G +0.047%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.77%EV -6.52%E -1.87%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 12:49
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV +3.23%E +0.702%K +0.897%G +0.029%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -11.35%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 12:53
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.63%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.87%EV +2.33%E +0.511%K +0.655%G +0.015%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.50%EV -10.28%E -3.08%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 12:53
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -12.80%E -7.44%K -17.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV +0.984%E +0.219%K +0.281%G +0.003%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 12:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -6.21%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -1.26%E -0.286%K -0.370%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 12:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -6.21%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -1.26%E -0.286%K -0.370%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 12:54
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -6.21%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -1.26%E -0.286%K -0.370%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 12:54
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.81%EV -8.24%E -4.55%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -1.26%E -0.286%K -0.370%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -12.70%E -3.91%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 12:59
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -2.83%E -0.654%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 12:34
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -2.83%E -0.654%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -14.04%E -4.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 12:59
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -3.50%E -0.815%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -7.32%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 12:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.84%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.50%E -0.815%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.53%EV -9.20%E -2.72%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 12:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -3.30%E -0.915%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 11:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -6.21%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 11:49
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -10.27%E -5.80%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 12:59
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -16.73%E -5.40%K -7.96%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 12:59
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.99%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 12:59
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.99%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 12:34
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -7.99%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 12:55
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -7.99%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 13:00
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -3.30%E -0.915%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 12:58
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 12:44
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 12:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 12:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 12:54
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 12:54
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.24%EV -7.73%E -4.25%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 11:49
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.24%EV -7.73%E -4.25%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 11:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.68%EV -12.29%E -7.11%K -16.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -10.24%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -14.04%E -4.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-20 12:44
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -4.69%E -2.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -11.36%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -12.48%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 12:34
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -6.21%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -12.48%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 12:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.46%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -13.60%E -3.53%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 11:49
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.26%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -13.60%E -3.53%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -11.35%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 12:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.38%EV -11.79%E -6.77%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.89%EV -14.05%E -3.67%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.73%EV -11.89%E -3.63%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-20 12:33
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -6.21%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.35%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 12:59
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.78%EV -8.24%E -4.55%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 12:09
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-20 11:49
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-20 11:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-20 11:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -9.76%E -5.48%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -7.32%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 11:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.73%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 12:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.73%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 12:09
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.91%EV -12.29%E -7.11%K -16.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.18%EV -14.72%E -3.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.91%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-20 11:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.71%EV -9.25%E -5.17%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -15.85%E -4.23%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 12:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.98%EV -15.84%E -9.54%K -24.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.57%EV -15.85%E -4.23%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.45%EV -14.04%E -4.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%18.2%2026-09-20 12:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.48%EV -12.29%E -7.11%K -16.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.78%EV -19.21%E -5.34%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.75%EV -14.04%E -4.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-20 12:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.61%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-09-20 12:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.35%0.8%2026-09-20 12:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.19%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.58%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.23%1.2%2026-09-20 12:59
Matchbook◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.32%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-09-20 12:59
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.10%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.03%1.9%2026-09-20 12:59