Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.10
assuming max odds 3.99
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Empoli (Local): 45.69%; Mantova (Visit): 25.94%; Draw: 28.37%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.49%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.23%EV -4.51%E -2.16%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.22%EV +3.49%E +0.876%K +1.17%G +0.041% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.55%EV -7.22%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.14%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -1.43%E -0.377%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.58%EV -11.48%E -3.68%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 13:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.14%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -1.43%E -0.377%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.58%EV -11.48%E -3.68%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 13:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -4.05%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -1.43%E -0.377%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -17.72%E -6.11%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -1.43%E -0.377%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.14%EV -7.25%E -3.57%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.78%EV -1.95%E -0.517%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.09%EV -8.64%E -2.68%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -1.95%E -0.517%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -2.73%E -0.728%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -6.37%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 13:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.00%EV -4.97%E -2.39%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.00%EV -4.97%E -2.39%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -20.56%E -7.34%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.53%EV -4.51%E -2.16%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -5.33%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.40%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.05%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -4.97%E -2.39%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.37%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 13:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.06%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -20.56%E -7.34%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -7.92%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 13:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.37%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 13:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 05:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-14 13:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.87%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 13:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -12.73%E -6.67%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-14 03:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.64%EV -21.97%E -7.99%K -12.56%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.76%EV -10.91%E -5.59%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.09%EV -11.29%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.15%EV -10.06%E -3.17%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.37%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.50%EV -15.48%E -8.37%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.30%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.20%EV -13.46%E -4.41%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-03-14 13:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-07 14:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.71%E -3.82%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.39%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.37%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.39%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.37%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 44.17%EV -15.48%E -8.37%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 24.39%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 31.43%EV -26.23%E -10.09%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 22.4% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.58%EV -9.99%E -5.07%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -6.37%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-07 14:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-14 05:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-14 05:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-14 05:35 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.56%EV -12.73%E -6.67%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -12.04%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.39%EV -11.36%E -5.86%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -15.70%E -4.83%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.43%EV -12.73%E -6.67%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.11%EV -15.70%E -4.83%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.46%EV -18.29%E -6.35%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.8% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.8% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-03-14 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.36% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15% | 2.1% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |