Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cremonese v Modena

Inicio: 2026-08-28 18:32 UTC

Final: Cremonese 0–3 Modena

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cremonese (Local)

Predicción 37.96%2.63momio equitativo
EV -2.81%
Ventaja -1.10%
Kelly -1.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.33%38.02%37.94%40.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.382.402.5647.62%41.95%41.67%39.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Modena (Visitante)

Predicción 32.13%3.11momio equitativo
EV +1.22%
Ventaja +0.387%
Kelly +0.567%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.47%32.14%32.10%33.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.912.903.1537.04%34.36%34.48%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.90%3.34momio equitativo
EV -1.32%
Ventaja -0.399%
Kelly -0.573%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.50%29.85%29.95%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.073.103.3034.72%32.62%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cremonese (Local): 37.96%; Modena (Visitante): 32.13%; Empate: 29.90%. Para Modena (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.11. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.15, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.22%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -13.44%E -5.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.22%E +0.387%K +0.567%G +0.007%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Pinnacle🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 38.21%EV -3.95%E -1.56%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.49%EV -1.35%E -0.440%K -0.653%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.30%EV -4.61%E -1.44%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-28 18:21
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -15.34%E -6.88%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -1.99%E -0.654%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-28 17:55
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.93%EV -9.65%E -4.05%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.26%EV -2.32%E -0.762%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -1.32%E -0.399%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-28 18:25
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.09%E -2.04%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 18:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -16.48%E -7.49%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.56%EV -17.24%E -7.91%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -11.78%E -3.99%K -6.04%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-28 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.56%EV -17.24%E -7.91%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -11.78%E -3.99%K -6.04%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.04%EV -5.09%E -2.04%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -5.21%E -1.77%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 18:00
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -5.09%E -2.04%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.09%EV -5.21%E -1.77%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-28 18:15
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -6.99%E -2.85%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.21%E -1.77%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.78%E -3.99%K -6.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -10.79%E -4.59%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.21%E -1.77%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:51
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.07%EV -6.99%E -2.85%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -5.85%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.82%EV -2.81%E -1.10%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.17%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.82%EV -2.81%E -1.10%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.17%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 18:25
BetUS🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.82%EV -2.81%E -1.10%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.17%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 18:24
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -5.09%E -2.04%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -1.32%E -0.399%K -0.573%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-28 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -5.09%E -2.04%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.09%E -2.04%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -5.09%E -2.04%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 18:19
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-28 18:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.76%EV -20.28%E -9.66%K -18.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.52%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.72%EV -13.88%E -4.82%K -7.38%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-28 17:55
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -7.46%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 18:24
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -7.46%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -7.46%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -7.46%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 18:25
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -7.46%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -13.88%E -4.82%K -7.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -7.46%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -13.88%E -4.82%K -7.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 18:21
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.70%EV -9.65%E -4.05%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.15%EV -7.46%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.15%EV -13.88%E -4.82%K -7.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-28 18:21
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.84%EV -8.13%E -3.36%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.13%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 17:55
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.84%EV -8.13%E -3.36%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.13%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.05%EV -9.65%E -4.05%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.18%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-28 18:24
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -3.19%E -1.25%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -10.03%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 17:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -6.99%E -2.85%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.03%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-28 17:55
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.03%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 17:55
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.03%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 17:55
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.03%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 17:55
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -10.03%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-28 18:15
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -9.65%E -4.05%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 18:20
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -9.65%E -4.05%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -8.89%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -10.79%E -4.59%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.94%EV -14.58%E -6.48%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-28 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.34%EV -13.82%E -6.09%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.65%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-28 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -10.79%E -4.59%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -13.24%E -4.90%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 17:55
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -6.99%E -2.85%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -13.24%E -4.90%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 17:51
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -6.99%E -2.85%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -13.24%E -4.90%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 17:51
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -6.99%E -2.85%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -13.24%E -4.90%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 17:51
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -9.65%E -4.05%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.62%EV -13.24%E -4.90%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-28 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.07%0.6%2026-08-28 18:25
Matchbook◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%0.9%2026-08-28 18:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%0.9%2026-08-28 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%0.9%2026-08-28 18:15
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.73%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-08-28 18:21