Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC v Sampdoria

2026-08-23 19:00 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 35.89%2.79fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.80%35.84%35.89%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.492.452.6544.05%40.22%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sampdoria (Visit)

Prediction 35.19%2.84fair odd
EV -6.74%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.48%35.26%35.04%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.572.602.6542.55%38.85%38.46%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.91%3.46fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.706%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.27%28.89%29.07%30.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.093.103.4035.46%32.36%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cesena FC (Local): 35.89%; Sampdoria (Visit): 35.19%; Draw: 28.91%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -1.69%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -6.74%E -2.54%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -1.69%E -0.498%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 16:49
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.74%E -2.54%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-04 16:49
1xBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.96%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -7.79%E -2.97%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -6.32%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 16:49
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.96%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.79%E -2.97%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.26%E -4.42%K -6.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-04 16:50
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.96%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.79%E -2.97%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.26%E -4.42%K -6.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-04 16:50
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.96%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.79%E -2.97%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.26%E -4.42%K -6.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-04 16:49
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.96%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.79%E -2.97%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.26%E -4.42%K -6.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-04 16:50
Bovada2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.68%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -6.74%E -2.54%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 16:50
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 35.67%EV -7.40%E -2.87%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.12%EV -7.79%E -2.97%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.92%E -2.83%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-04 16:50
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 35.67%EV -7.40%E -2.87%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.12%EV -7.79%E -2.97%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.92%E -2.83%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-04 16:50
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -10.27%E -4.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-04 16:49
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:49
LiveScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:49
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:49
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:49
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:49
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:50
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:50
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:50
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:50
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:49
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 16:50
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-04 18:25
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 36.19%EV -12.78%E -5.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.49%EV -10.26%E -4.02%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -13.26%E -4.42%K -6.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-04 16:49
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 36.36%EV -13.86%E -5.77%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.36%EV -15.53%E -6.47%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-04 16:50
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.31%EV -13.86%E -5.77%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.57%EV -13.78%E -5.62%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-04 16:50
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.15%EV -13.86%E -5.77%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.41%EV -13.78%E -5.62%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -11.81%E -3.87%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-04 16:50
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.29%EV -15.65%E -6.66%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.81%EV -13.78%E -5.62%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.91%EV -14.71%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%17.3%2026-08-04 16:49
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 36.51%EV -16.73%E -7.21%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.58%EV -13.78%E -5.62%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 28.91%EV -15.28%E -5.22%K -7.92%G +0.000%18.0%2026-08-04 16:49
NetBet (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 36.09%EV -18.52%E -8.16%K -14.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 34.86%EV -17.29%E -7.36%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 29.05%EV -18.46%E -6.55%K -10.15%G +0.000%22.1%2026-08-04 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.