Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC v Sampdoria

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:02 UTC

Final: Cesena FC 1–1 Sampdoria

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 36.70%2.72fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.34%36.69%36.71%38.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.492.502.6543.48%40.14%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sampdoria (Visit)

Prediction 33.68%2.97fair odd
EV -0.294%
Edge -0.099%
Kelly -0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.52%33.61%33.84%34.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.752.9639.22%36.70%36.36%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.62%3.38fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.687%
Kelly -0.986%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%29.70%29.45%31.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.103.3034.48%32.12%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 36.70%; Sampdoria (Visit): 33.68%; Draw: 29.62%. For Sampdoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.96, with an expected value of -0.294%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.33%EV -2.75%E -1.04%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.52%EV -0.294%E -0.099%K -0.150%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.15%EV -8.49%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.59%EV -3.11%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.09%EV -4.34%E -1.53%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.59%EV -3.11%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.09%EV -4.34%E -1.53%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 18:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -4.58%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -5.68%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 18:24
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -4.58%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.00%E -1.40%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 18:54
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -4.58%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.00%E -1.40%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -4.58%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 18:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -4.58%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 18:50
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -6.42%E -2.52%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -5.68%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -2.27%E -0.687%K -0.986%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 18:39
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.42%E -2.52%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -4.00%E -1.40%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.71%E -2.13%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 18:49
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -6.42%E -2.52%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -5.68%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -6.71%E -2.13%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 18:49
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -6.42%E -2.52%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.80%EV -8.38%E -3.08%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -9.67%E -3.17%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 18:24
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -6.42%E -2.52%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.80%EV -8.38%E -3.08%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -9.67%E -3.17%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 18:25
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.41%EV -6.78%E -2.67%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -4.00%E -1.40%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 18:49
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:35
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:35
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:34
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:35
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:34
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 18:54
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 18:54
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.71%E -2.13%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 18:54
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -5.68%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 18:49
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -5.68%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -5.68%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 18:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -5.68%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 18:50
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -6.71%E -2.13%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 18:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.89%EV -13.23%E -4.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-23 18:48
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -14.11%E -4.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.25%E -3.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -14.11%E -4.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 18:49
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 18:50
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.74%E -4.05%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.74%E -4.05%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 18:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 18:25
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 18:50
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 18:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 18:49
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -9.05%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -14.11%E -4.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 18:49
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -11.92%E -4.97%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 18:55
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -11.92%E -4.97%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 18:55
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -11.92%E -4.97%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -10.74%E -4.05%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -6.71%E -2.13%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-23 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -12.65%E -5.32%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -11.41%E -4.34%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -12.65%E -5.32%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -12.65%E -5.32%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 18:34
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -12.65%E -5.32%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.62%EV -11.75%E -4.48%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-23 18:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 36.65%EV -13.02%E -5.49%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.40%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.95%EV -14.11%E -4.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-23 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -13.76%E -5.85%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.80%EV -12.42%E -4.78%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.81%EV -9.67%E -3.17%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-23 18:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.47%EV -15.59%E -6.78%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.80%EV -14.10%E -5.53%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-23 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.30%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-08-23 18:54
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.30%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-08-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-08-23 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-08-23 18:50
Smarkets2.72I 36.76%NM 36.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.83%1.3%2026-08-23 18:54