La escuela de los momios

Cesena FC v Sampdoria

Inicio: 2026-04-25 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cesena FC (Local)

Predicción 38.51%2.60momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.556%
Kelly -0.913%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.68%38.36%38.51%40.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.372.382.5645.45%42.16%42.02%39.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sampdoria (Visitante)

Predicción 31.87%3.14momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -0.917%
Kelly -1.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.56%31.92%31.84%33.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.882.883.0537.04%34.73%34.72%32.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.62%3.38momio equitativo
EV -2.24%
Ventaja -0.679%
Kelly -0.974%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.53%29.72%29.65%31.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.073.103.3035.71%32.53%32.26%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.56I 39.06%NM 37.24%EV -1.42%E -0.556%K -0.913%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.21%EV -5.67%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.55%EV -7.57%E -2.43%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 23:50
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -7.58%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -2.24%E -0.679%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 23:55
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV -6.94%E -2.38%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.42%EV -8.76%E -2.84%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 01:35
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 23:39
LowVig.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -4.50%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.38%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 23:39
BetOnline.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -4.50%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.38%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 23:39
Bovada2.48I 40.32%NM 37.08%EV -4.50%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.27%EV -9.17%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-24 00:04
BetUS2.48I 40.32%NM 37.08%EV -4.50%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.27%EV -9.17%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 23:40
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.17%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -2.24%E -0.679%K -0.974%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:59
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 23:40
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 23:55
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.21%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 23:39
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.21%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 23:39
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.21%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 23:39
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.21%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 23:39
Codere (IT)2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -6.81%E -2.82%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV -2.80%E -0.917%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -3.72%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-20 10:39
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -4.39%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 12:39
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -4.39%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 17:30
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -9.17%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 23:54
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 23:55
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 23:54
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 23:55
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 23:40
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 23:54
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 37.46%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -9.17%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.42%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 10:29
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -8.35%E -3.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-20 10:25
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -8.35%E -3.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.20%EV -7.57%E -2.43%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 23:44
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -8.35%E -3.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -13.95%E -5.17%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 23:55
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -8.35%E -3.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -13.95%E -5.17%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 23:39
Betsson2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -9.51%E -4.05%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -5.03%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-20 10:24
NordicBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -9.51%E -4.05%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -5.03%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-20 10:24
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:25
Unibet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:25
ATG (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:25
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
Casumo2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
Unibet (NL)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
Grosvenor2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
betPARX2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35%EV -10.28%E -4.41%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:30
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -10.67%E -4.60%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -7.58%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-20 00:30
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -10.67%E -4.60%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -7.58%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-20 00:30
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 39.17%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.28%EV -8.21%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -9.65%E -3.16%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-20 00:30
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-20 10:25
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-20 10:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-20 10:25
NetBet (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 38.34%EV -12.59%E -5.55%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.65%EV -12.36%E -4.49%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.42%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 23:39
Betclic (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%EV -13.36%E -5.94%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.01%EV -8.21%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.29%EV -9.65%E -3.16%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 17:32
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -13.36%E -5.94%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-20 10:25
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 39.37%EV -14.13%E -6.34%K -11.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-20 00:30
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -15.29%E -6.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.96%EV -9.17%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -9.65%E -3.16%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-23 17:34
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.24%EV -15.29%E -6.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -13.95%E -5.17%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-23 01:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 38.89%EV -15.29%E -6.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.56%EV -10.76%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.56%EV -17.05%E -6.09%K -9.47%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-18 19:08
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.54I 39.37%NM 38.42%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.00%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.58%2.5%2026-04-23 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.63%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.66%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.71%3.6%2026-04-23 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.63%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.66%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.71%3.6%2026-04-23 23:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.63%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.66%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.71%3.6%2026-04-24 00:00
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-04-24 00:25