Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC v Cremonese

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 17:32 UTC

Final: Cesena FC 2–2 Cremonese

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 30.21%3.31fair odd
EV -0.306%
Edge -0.093%
Kelly -0.133%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%30.27%30.19%31.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.023.3035.71%32.98%33.06%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cremonese (Visit)

Prediction 40.81%2.45fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.41%40.77%40.78%41.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.252.252.4048.31%44.51%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.98%3.45fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.429%
Kelly -0.608%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%28.96%29.03%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.163.203.4034.48%31.63%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 30.21%; Cremonese (Visit): 40.81%; Draw: 28.98%. For Cesena FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -0.306%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.32%EV -0.306%E -0.093%K -0.133%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.18%EV -4.10%E -1.75%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.50%EV -4.94%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-12 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.83%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.80%EV -4.51%E -1.93%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.37%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 17:04
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -4.10%E -1.75%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -10.15%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 17:05
TABtouch🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 01:39
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -10.22%E -4.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.15%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:30
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:30
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:35
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:30
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:30
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 17:01
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -3.69%E -1.57%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 17:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -3.69%E -1.57%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 16:38
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -11.60%E -3.80%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 14:20
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -11.60%E -3.80%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 14:20
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -11.60%E -3.80%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:01
1xBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.94%EV -7.25%E -2.36%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -2.06%E -0.859%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.49%EV -6.68%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 17:26
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 17:25
BetUS🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 17:25
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.36%EV -11.04%E -5.06%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -10.15%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -11.45%E -5.28%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -11.60%E -3.80%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -11.45%E -5.28%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -11.60%E -3.80%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 16:30
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -2.06%E -0.859%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 17:25
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -1.46%E -0.429%K -0.608%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 17:05
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.22%E -4.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 17:19
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.22%E -4.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -10.22%E -4.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.05%E -4.35%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.05%E -4.35%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 17:15
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -15.95%E -5.50%K -8.40%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 17:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.18%EV -11.86%E -5.49%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.17%EV -11.60%E -3.80%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 16:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -14.30%E -6.81%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -11.60%E -3.80%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-12 17:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -10.88%E -3.69%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 17:26
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -10.88%E -3.69%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -10.22%E -4.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.15%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -10.88%E -3.69%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.89%EV -12.26%E -5.70%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -13.05%E -4.35%K -6.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-12 17:18
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 17:25
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 17:26
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 17:20
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 17:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 17:20
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.66%EV -6.96%E -3.05%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -10.15%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 17:10
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -12.26%E -5.70%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -12.26%E -5.70%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 17:05
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -12.26%E -5.70%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 17:06
NetBet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.99%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.02%EV -13.49%E -6.36%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -13.05%E -4.35%K -6.53%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-12 17:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.55%EV -12.39%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.40%EV -15.53%E -7.50%K -14.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.05%EV -14.50%E -4.92%K -7.44%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-12 16:30
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -12.99%E -4.51%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -13.90%E -4.88%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -6.14%E -2.67%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 17:25
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -15.41%E -5.50%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -12.26%E -5.70%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -10.15%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.50%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.19%0.4%2026-09-12 17:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.50%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.19%0.4%2026-09-12 17:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.50%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.19%0.4%2026-09-12 17:26
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.33%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-12 17:26
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.90%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.99%1.0%2026-09-12 17:26