Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carrarese v Palermo

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 16:17 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carrarese (Local)

Prediction 27.02%3.70fair odd
EV +3.77%
Edge +0.981%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.74%27.02%27.01%29.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.343.303.8432.79%29.95%30.30%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palermo (Visit)

Prediction 43.78%2.28fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.72%43.71%43.73%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.122.152.2252.63%47.28%46.51%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.20%3.42fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.38%29.28%29.26%31.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.603.113.203.3038.46%32.13%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carrarese (Local): 27.02%; Palermo (Visit): 43.78%; Draw: 29.20%. For Carrarese (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 24.75%EV +3.77%E +0.981%K +1.33%G +0.050%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.91%EV -9.39%E -4.53%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.33%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 16:14
Pinnacle🎯3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV +0.794%E +0.213%K +0.291%G +0.002%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.19%EV -4.13%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-08 16:14
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -0.017%E -0.004%K -0.006%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -13.85%E -4.70%K -7.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 16:15
theScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -1.37%E -0.375%K -0.516%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -2.72%E -0.755%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.00%EV -5.01%E -2.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.47%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 16:14
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -2.72%E -0.755%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.00%EV -5.01%E -2.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.47%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 16:15
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -2.72%E -0.755%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 16:14
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.72%E -0.755%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 16:14
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -2.72%E -0.755%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 16:14
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -2.72%E -0.755%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -18.23%E -6.51%K -10.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-08 16:15
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -4.07%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.31%EV -8.95%E -4.30%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 16:10
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 16:14
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-08 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-08 16:14
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-08 16:14
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -18.23%E -6.51%K -10.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-08 16:14
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -6.77%E -1.96%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 16:14
Winamax (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.34%EV -6.77%E -1.96%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.53%EV -15.95%E -8.31%K -17.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-08 16:15
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 16:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 16:14
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 16:14
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-08 16:14
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-08 16:15
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 16:15
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -8.95%E -4.30%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-08 16:14
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -19.69%E -7.16%K -11.25%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-08 16:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.25%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.94%EV -16.39%E -8.58%K -18.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.81%EV -15.90%E -5.52%K -8.46%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-08 16:15
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 16:14
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 16:14
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -12.45%E -6.22%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-08 16:14
NetBet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.66%EV -15.51%E -8.04%K -16.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -13.85%E -4.70%K -7.10%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-08 16:13
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -12.18%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 16:14
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.18%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-08 16:14
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.18%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-08 16:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.18%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-08 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 25.25%EV -12.18%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 43.19%EV -16.83%E -8.86%K -18.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.56%EV -24.07%E -9.26%K -15.05%G +0.000%21.9%2026-03-08 16:14
Betclic (FR)🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 27.59%EV -12.72%E -3.94%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.47%EV -10.26%E -5.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.94%EV -10.06%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-08 16:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -13.53%E -4.23%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 16:14
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -13.53%E -4.23%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:14
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -13.53%E -4.23%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-08 16:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -14.88%E -4.72%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 16:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -14.88%E -4.72%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.45%EV -12.45%E -6.22%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-08 16:14
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:14
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:07
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:14
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:15
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:15
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:14
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -4.57%E -2.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 16:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -16.23%E -5.24%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -4.57%E -2.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 16:14
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -17.58%E -5.76%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-08 16:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.03%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-03-08 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.03%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-03-08 16:15
Matchbook4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.20%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-03-08 16:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.00%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39%1.6%2026-03-08 16:14
Smarkets3.85I 25.97%NM 25.32%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.13%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.54%2.6%2026-03-08 16:15