Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Carrarese v Mantova

Inicio: 2026-08-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Carrarese 1–2 Mantova

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Carrarese (Local)

Predicción 36.75%2.72momio equitativo
EV -0.405%
Ventaja -0.149%
Kelly -0.237%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.15%36.61%36.79%38.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.482.502.7144.84%40.25%40.00%36.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mantova (Visitante)

Predicción 33.78%2.96momio equitativo
EV -3.38%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -1.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.93%33.82%33.78%35.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.722.702.8639.22%36.75%37.04%34.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.46%3.39momio equitativo
EV -2.77%
Ventaja -0.838%
Kelly -1.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.94%29.57%29.42%32.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.133.153.3035.71%31.92%31.75%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Carrarese (Local): 36.75%; Mantova (Visitante): 33.78%; Empate: 29.46%. Para Carrarese (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.72. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.71, con un valor esperado de -0.405%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.58%EV -0.405%E -0.149%K -0.237%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.71%EV -3.38%E -1.18%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.71%EV -7.48%E -2.38%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -0.772%E -0.286%K -0.454%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -17.50%E -6.25%K -9.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:45
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -2.61%E -0.985%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 12:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.30%EV -3.34%E -1.27%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -7.09%E -2.58%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 12:45
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -3.71%E -1.30%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 12:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.36%EV -7.43%E -2.71%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 12:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.36%EV -7.43%E -2.71%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 12:44
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.36%EV -7.43%E -2.71%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 14:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.01%EV -4.81%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV -7.09%E -2.58%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.16%EV -5.18%E -2.01%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -7.09%E -2.58%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.91%EV -8.07%E -2.59%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.72%EV -5.18%E -2.01%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.76%EV -7.77%E -2.85%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.52%EV -11.02%E -3.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 15:08
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.32%EV -6.28%E -2.46%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -3.71%E -1.30%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -4.24%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 12:04
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -6.28%E -2.46%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 12:10
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -6.28%E -2.46%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -3.71%E -1.30%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.28%E -2.46%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 12:00
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.28%E -2.46%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 14:00
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -6.28%E -2.46%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 12:45
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.09%E -2.58%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 11:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.24%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 12:04
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -11.48%E -4.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 15:00
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -10.47%E -3.95%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 12:05
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.48%E -4.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 12:05
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.48%E -4.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 14:29
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.48%E -4.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 14:28
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -10.47%E -3.95%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 14:35
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 12:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 12:44
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 12:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -14.55%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-22 14:04
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -8.12%E -3.25%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -11.15%E -4.24%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -14.55%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-22 12:44
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 12:04
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -7.09%E -2.58%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 12:00
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -7.09%E -2.58%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 12:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -10.47%E -3.95%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 12:10
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -11.15%E -4.24%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 11:49
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -11.48%E -4.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-22 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -11.48%E -4.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-22 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.40%E -1.93%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.00%EV -11.06%E -4.57%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.16%EV -13.85%E -5.43%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.84%EV -13.96%E -4.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-22 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 11:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.32%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -10.47%E -3.95%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-22 12:00
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.72%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.90%EV -12.16%E -4.68%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-22 11:59
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -13.64%E -5.80%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -13.64%E -5.80%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 11:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.52%EV -14.74%E -6.35%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.78%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -15.47%E -6.73%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -10.47%E -3.95%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-22 15:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -15.47%E -6.73%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -10.47%E -3.95%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-22 15:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 38.45%EV -18.05%E -8.09%K -14.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.98%EV -12.16%E -4.68%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.58%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-22 15:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.62%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.91%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%1.0%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.62%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.91%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%1.0%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.54%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.07%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-08-22 15:05
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%NM 35.79%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.39%1.2%2026-08-22 15:05
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.74%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06%2.2%2026-08-22 15:20