Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.50
assuming max odds 3.10
assuming max odds 3.35
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carrarese (Local): 39.17%; Empoli (Visit): 31.31%; Draw: 29.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -2.07%E -0.827%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -2.61%E -0.791%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 22:38 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.03%E -1.64%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -14.41%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.04%EV -4.42%E -1.81%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -2.92%E -0.943%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 10:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.10%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.39%EV -6.37%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.51%EV -6.15%E -1.93%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -4.49%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 05:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-02 14:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -10.75%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-03 22:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 22:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -5.99%E -2.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 22:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.15%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.33%EV -4.49%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -1.13%E -0.338%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 10:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.36%EV -6.68%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.38%EV -6.15%E -1.93%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.86%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -9.99%E -3.27%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.86%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -9.99%E -3.27%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.86%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -9.99%E -3.27%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 13:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-01 05:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-01 05:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-01 05:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-01 05:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -2.61%E -0.791%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.49%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 13:16 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 13:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-03 22:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 07:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.96%EV -8.73%E -3.75%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 30.98%EV -8.25%E -2.81%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.06%EV -10.87%E -3.60%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-03 17:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -8.73%E -3.75%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -10.75%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -9.99%E -3.27%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 13:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 10:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 10:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.52%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.13%EV -7.92%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-02 10:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.52%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.13%EV -7.92%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-02 10:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.26%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -9.99%E -3.27%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 08:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.90%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.86%E -5.27%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -9.81%E -3.41%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-01 00:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.86%E -5.27%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -9.81%E -3.41%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.38%EV -11.86%E -5.27%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.75%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 39.09%EV -13.04%E -5.87%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.99%EV -12.32%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -14.41%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-04 08:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 38.86%EV -13.82%E -6.28%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.66%EV -15.45%E -5.72%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.48%EV -14.41%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -15.78%E -7.34%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.82%EV -10.75%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-03 17:35 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67% | 3.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.42% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.52% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |