Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benevento v Hellas Verona

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 19:00 UTC

Final: Benevento 3–1 Hellas Verona

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benevento (Local)

Prediction 33.02%3.03fair odd
EV +0.696%
Edge +0.228%
Kelly +0.340%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.70%32.87%33.10%35.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.842.843.0539.22%35.27%35.21%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hellas Verona (Visit)

Prediction 37.40%2.67fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.482%
Kelly -0.776%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.43%37.44%37.36%40.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.412.402.6446.73%41.55%41.67%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.59%3.38fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.51%29.69%29.54%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.103.2534.48%32.10%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benevento (Local): 33.02%; Hellas Verona (Visit): 37.40%; Draw: 29.59%. For Benevento (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.696%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:04
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:04
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:04
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:05
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:04
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV +0.696%E +0.228%K +0.340%G +0.002%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 23:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -0.955%E -0.318%K -0.477%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -11.00%E -4.62%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 09:25
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -2.61%E -0.883%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.32%E -1.66%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 09:29
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -3.93%E -1.35%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -1.27%E -0.482%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV -9.46%E -3.09%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 12:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 09:35
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -6.80%E -2.16%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 12:00
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -6.80%E -2.16%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 13:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 15:15
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -13.99%E -6.08%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -6.80%E -2.16%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 09:30
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -16.60%E -7.45%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 23:05
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -13.99%E -6.08%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 09:28
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.05%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.10%EV -16.60%E -7.45%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.74%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.24%EV -17.73%E -8.06%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -9.76%E -3.20%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 23:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.74%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.24%EV -17.73%E -8.06%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -9.76%E -3.20%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.45%EV -5.58%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -3.52%E -1.36%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.57%EV -13.01%E -4.43%K -6.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 12:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.45%EV -5.58%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -3.52%E -1.36%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.57%EV -13.01%E -4.43%K -6.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 12:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.91%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.32%E -1.66%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 09:30
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.91%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.32%E -1.66%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 23:25
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -5.91%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 19:30
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.91%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.32%E -1.66%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 14:35
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.94%EV -6.57%E -2.32%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.99%EV -5.76%E -2.29%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.94%EV -6.57%E -2.32%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.99%EV -5.76%E -2.29%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:30
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -3.84%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 17:14
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 09:29
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 09:30
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.24%E -3.75%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 12:05
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -15.86%E -7.05%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -11.24%E -3.75%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-09 09:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.70%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 40.17%EV -19.97%E -9.33%K -17.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.14%EV -12.72%E -4.31%K -6.52%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-07 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.32%E -1.66%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 17:14
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 02:15
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.24%E -3.75%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:10
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.24%E -3.75%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.24%E -3.75%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.24%E -3.75%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.79%EV -10.20%E -3.75%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.96%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -9.76%E -3.20%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 09:30
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.80%E -2.16%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 02:15
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.16%EV -7.69%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 13:05
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.16%EV -7.69%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 13:05
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 17:16
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -11.00%E -4.62%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-08 14:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -6.80%E -2.16%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 09:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.85%EV -11.37%E -4.80%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.93%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 14:40
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.85%EV -11.37%E -4.80%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.93%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.41%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -15.86%E -7.05%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.69%EV -9.76%E -3.20%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-09 09:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -12.51%E -4.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.81%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 09:29
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.39%EV -13.50%E -5.15%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.45%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -14.20%E -4.89%K -7.47%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-08 14:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.13%EV -13.50%E -5.15%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.94%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.93%EV -14.20%E -4.89%K -7.47%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-09 12:34
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -15.81%E -6.20%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -8.28%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.44%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.73%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.84%3.1%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.50%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.68%3.7%2026-09-09 12:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.50%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.68%3.7%2026-09-09 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.50%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.68%3.7%2026-09-09 12:00
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.13%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%5.4%2026-09-09 14:20