Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bari v Reggiana

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bari (Local)

Prediction 42.65%2.34fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.61%42.62%42.59%43.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.172.172.2551.28%46.12%46.08%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reggiana (Visit)

Prediction 26.71%3.74fair odd
EV +2.57%
Edge +0.670%
Kelly +0.906%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.46%26.68%26.76%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.363.403.8432.79%29.72%29.41%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.64%3.26fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.14%30.70%30.65%33.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.973.003.1540.82%33.66%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bari (Local): 42.65%; Reggiana (Visit): 26.71%; Draw: 30.64%. For Reggiana (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.19%EV -4.46%E -1.99%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.19%EV +2.57%E +0.670%K +0.906%G +0.023%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.62%EV -6.26%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Bovada🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.29%EV -9.15%E -4.30%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -1.17%E -0.315%K -0.432%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.79%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 13:52
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -1.17%E -0.315%K -0.432%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -15.75%E -5.73%K -9.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 13:48
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -2.50%E -0.685%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 13:55
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.88%EV -3.30%E -0.912%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.54%EV -9.01%E -3.03%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.96%EV -7.44%E -3.43%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -3.30%E -0.912%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -8.71%E -2.92%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.76%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 13:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.43%EV -7.44%E -3.43%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.43%EV -7.44%E -3.43%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 13:15
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -19.73%E -7.53%K -12.18%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:50
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.93%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.61%EV -19.73%E -7.53%K -12.18%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-14 13:50
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 13:54
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.42%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 13:20
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 13:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 13:50
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 13:50
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -20.35%E -7.83%K -12.72%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-14 13:50
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.84%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 13:20
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.40%EV -7.02%E -3.22%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -7.84%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 13:50
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.40%EV -7.02%E -3.22%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -7.84%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 13:20
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 13:09
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 13:09
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 13:20
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-14 13:55
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -12.56%E -6.13%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -10.51%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 13:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.90%EV -11.28%E -5.42%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -10.51%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.46%EV -10.24%E -3.49%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 13:38
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.30%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%EV -4.42%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-14 13:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -9.63%E -3.26%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-14 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 41.90%EV -16.83%E -8.63%K -17.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 24.76%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 33.35%EV -24.94%E -10.18%K -17.20%G +0.000%22.4%2026-03-14 13:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 13:10
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 13:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 13:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.16%EV -14.70%E -7.35%K -14.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.56%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.29%EV -12.69%E -4.45%K -6.86%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-14 13:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.14%EV -15.12%E -7.60%K -15.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.44%EV -13.61%E -4.83%K -7.48%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-14 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -12.56%E -6.13%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -14.52%E -4.54%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -9.63%E -3.26%K -4.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-14 13:20
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:10
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:10
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:05
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:05
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:10
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.03%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.01%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 13:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -17.19%E -5.55%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -15.75%E -5.73%K -9.00%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-14 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -18.53%E -6.07%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-14 13:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -18.53%E -6.07%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-14 13:10
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -6.16%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -18.53%E -6.07%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%0.5%2026-03-14 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.46%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.46%0.9%2026-03-14 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.24%1.6%2026-03-14 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.24%1.6%2026-03-14 13:55
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.40%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.36%2.9%2026-03-14 13:55